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National Bank of Greece S.A. Message Board

  • dnguyen0781 Mar 1, 2011 10:26 PM Flag

    NBG earning

    I think NBG will have good earning and March 24 Alpha bank will merge NBG. What do you guy think?

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    • 1) scenario:
      NBG is pushed from all sides to sweeten the merger offer. They buckle, offer much better terms and conditions, sacrifies with big dilution, and Alpha accepts smiling. Everybody is happy.
      Stockprice jumps 10%.

      Then, in 2 months unwelcome skeletons start falling out of Alpha garderobe. And the successful merger turns out to be a disaster. Stokcprice collapses 50%.

      2) NGB stands firm and takes time. Works hard and diligently with good auditors (one of BigFour), and carefully prepares all book audits, checks the portfolio, overlooks all outstanding liabilities and assets, business soundness, etc.

      Finally, will offer new terms, and stands strong by it. Alpha will grudgingly accept. The merger will complete only in July. No skeletons, no surprises.
      Stockprice jumps 10%.

      What do you think is a better scenario for the shareholders?

      What do you think NGB and Alpha is doing now?