1)When everybody thinks this situation is terrible, and riots and blood are on the streets, then BUY stocks. Athens included.
2) The 5 years greek gov. bond's CDS rate went up since oct.2009 from 1.5% to 20%. But just made the biggest fall in the last couple of days. This is probably the first impulse for a gradual midterm decline. We might need 2 years for CDS rates to fell back to the longterm range of 1.5-3%. By that time NBG share price will be at $6-8 range.
3) Since oct.2009 the Athens Stock Exchange index formed a classic falling wedge shape. It fell from 1500 to 500. Tech. analysis 101 tells us falling wedges recover min. to their starting point.
4) Greek banks started the recovery faster then FTAES. Accordingly I expect NBG to recover faster than the index will.
Summary: This is great time to buy NBG shares, and hold for 1.5-2 years timeframe. Dont miss it.
Disclosure: I bought 60.000 NGB ADR-s, and plan to hold for 2 years.