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National Bank of Greece S.A. Message Board

  • tc8848 tc8848 Jun 14, 2012 9:57 AM Flag

    The REAL reason why NBG is up today... Be careful!

    The Greek Stock Market is up on speculation Tsipras bluffing...

    Specifically, overnight Kathimerini reported that "Stefanos Manos, the leader of the small liberal party Drasi, claims that leftist SYRIZA will not scrap Greece’s bailout if it comes to power because it is the only way it can guarantee salaries for its supporters in the civil service." Well, yes. Tspiras never said he will scrap the bailout. He merely said that he will end the memorandum in its current format. The decision then, and as always, would lie with Germany and the ECB, what to do about this latest Nash Equilibrium defection. In other words, the ultimate decision-maker was never Tsipras, and in fact even ND's Samaras has repeatedly said he would renegotiation the terms of the Greek bailout. But in this centrally-planned, robotically-traded market, confusion over cause and effect is to be widely expected.

    So propaganda aside, what did Tsipras really say? Well, fast forward 2 hours in the same Kathimerini which reports...

    In other words, as explained over the past 2 months, the Greek politicians will likely send a bid for memorandum renegotiation in either case. What happens then is out of their hands. The bigger question is whether Germans will have the stomach for Greek bailout #3. If one judges by the comments after yesterday's Die Ziet article, and by the emergence of the #StoppESM twitter hashmark, futures have much more to be worried about than what some C-grade politician in Greece has to say.

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    • Well said. WELL SAID. It really doesn't matter who gets elected and I included the possibility that some rumor would show up (at just the right time before systemic failure to buy some time).

      The fact that Greece will require an endless series of bailouts does not change and in my opinion, the Germans are getting tired of "bailing out" a country they know will NEVER be able to repay its debt. Greece will be shut out of the markets as long as it is a member of the EU. Why should Germany shoulder the burden of having *generations* worth of debt from another country? Right now, the winds of risk are starting to blow back to the so called "stable" core nations, namely Germany and France. If the fire spreads, their record low bond yields could explode instantaneously and the game will be over in a few minutes. The game they play is deadly and has no ultimate winner.

      Remember this: the pain in Spain does not stay mainly on the plain. Rex would be proud...

    • Appreciate the info. Thanks for taking the time to post. No one else on this BB apart from your usual pumpers & bashers seems to know what is really going on.

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