Dude, this stock is going to more than double by the end of 2013. Three big stimuli along the way will propel it- dividend increase, retire non-captive finance liabilities, and Cessna coming closer to nornal demand. Other smaller improvements may be Bell V-22 or H-1 Yankee/Zulu FMS sales, cancelation of automatic defense cuts, unfortunate rise in Afghanistan fighting, and Republican president. Ofcourse, unexpected TXT acquisition or spin-off may move it up big time.
Bear, not sure my opinion matters but my dad who has much bigger stake in TXT says it is about to go higher after recent recapitulation. He sees an institutional investor driving the price lower on small volume every morning, only to see it come back on higher volume later in the day because of MM or another institution's support or overall demand at higher price. The old man has a portfolio of over $5M and should know a thing or two about investing. On his advice, I delayed my Cobra purchase and put more money in TXT, S, and NOK a couple of months ago. Mr LuPune, the sports car enthusiast may have mixed feeling about my move but it taught me the value of investing. So I am sticking with TXT until it doubles in price.
....."He sees an institutional investor driving the price lower on small volume every morning, only to see it come back on higher volume later in the day because of MM or another institution's support or overall demand at higher price".....
Your dad seems to be very observant. I watched it last couple of days and surevseems like someone has an agenda to keep it low from breaking out above key technical resistance. Or may be all the buyers are from west coast that wake up late after some greedy shorts have driven it down on low volume ;). This too shall pass. Good earnings will take out these shorts and reward patient investors.
Man, you gave up a sports car for financial security- now that's unusual for a young man. Most will rather buy depreciating asset like sports car than invest in appreciating equities. Smart move. Keep it up. You won't go wrong, especially with guidance from your patient investor dad. All you other kids out there, did you learn anything? Respect your parents, they know better.
Optimistic more than ever. TXT has been making higher lows and higher highs over the last few weeks. For example, a 5-day chart shows an earlier peak at 27.86 about 3 to 4 days ago and today, as it traded intraday below that, it came back to close at 27.86 (crucial for technical reasons to maintain upside). In addition, the volume has been low on down days. So on technical basis, it looks good and about a dollar away from monthly close of 28.89 (29.2 on daily chart) to break-out.
Fundamentally, it has been strong for last few months. Aviation sector is getting stronger due to pent-up demand, balance sheet is getting better, cash flow is stronger, non-captive finance obligations slowly being retired. Bell Helicoper unit is stellar, Cessna seeing demand growth, and other units are performing fine. Textron is largely immune from automatic defense cuts which will likely be relaxed because of rising geo-political tensions. Fed decision to continue purchase of mortgage backed securities to back economy (in the absence of fiscal policy certainty) helps on macroeconomic basis.
Todays's news of clerance of V-22 for deployment in Japan paves the way for Foreign Military Sales of Bell-Boeing V-22 and warrants slight upside for TXT stock. Like last quarter, earnings beat and dividend and/or forecast visibility is all TXT stock needs to breakout above 28.89 on monthly chart (29.2 intraweek or 29.32 intraday).
Unless something unusual happens, we are ready for breakout and major move up to $38 to $42 range.