This is another case of a great company whose stock has gotten WAAAAAAAAAAY ahead of itself.
- Cult status
- Retail buying of stock off of TI success
- Steve Jobs (look at his other bloated pig AAPL)
What I hate most about being short on PIXR and AAPL is that I actually like both companies and their products a lot. But at some point, you have to say "money is money".
Ask yourself: Would you be long PIXR if the stock were trading at $200?
$1000 per share?
If you answered YES to any of the above questions that you are hopeless. Overpaying by 100% or 1000% for a great company's stock is a great way to lose a lot of money.
PIXR might be worth $100 per share in 2009, but today, given its past and forecasted earnings and applying a VERY OPTIMISTIC filter to those forecasts, I get an intrinsic valuation range of $15 to $35 per share (pre-split).
Anything over $35 is just paying for hype.
If Pixar gives us a Great Q1
(From continued Film revenue and outstanding DVD sales)
If Simon gives us guidance for a strong Q2
(From worldwide DVD sales)
If Simon gives us guidance for a strong Q3
(From Anniversary DVD release)
If Simon gives us guidance for a strong Q4
(From a Disney / Pixar celebration)
If Simon gives guidance for a strong 2005 and 2006
(All of the above plus CARS)
It could happen
See you at $50 and Beyond!
What happens if Steve announces a new deal with Disney???
Then we will see you at $55 and Beyond!!!!
Every wonder why we haven�t heard the numbers?
This is an interesting article that I found while Googling for �DVD Sales information�.
A few quotes from the article:
�The stakes are indisputably high. DVDs have provided the fastest-growing segment of show business returns, with 2004 domestic DVD sales reaching $15.5 billion and DVD rentals grossing $5.7 billion, according to the Digital Entertainment Group. Videocassette sales and rentals brought in $3.2 billion, while domestic theater ticket sales totaled $9.5 billion last year.�
�Unlike domestic box-office grosses, which are announced every week, there is no uniform and public DVD reporting. Some studios say accurate industrywide DVD sales numbers cannot be generated because Wal-Mart, which typically accounts for more than a third of all DVDs sold, does not make public its sales data.�
�Despite the concerns over accounting, quite a few people besides the studios are making money from DVDs. One actress with just four lines in "A Bug's Life" was paid $500 for performing in the animated film but has received tens of thousands of dollars in subsequent DVD royalties.�
Whoever doesn�t believe that the �Special Edition� - �10th Anniversary� - �Toy Story DVD� will be a significant revenue generator should definitely read the above article!
Several months ago, Pixar refused to give guidance for the year yet they were willing to guess that �The Incredibles� would produce results similar to �Monsters Inc�.
After reading several analyst recommendations, it appears that they used this information to create their models for the year.
Today I took a look though the boxofficemojo website to see how TI is comparing to MI in the worldwide box office. According to their statistics, TI has already earned over 20% more than MI did.
Hmmm, perhaps Pixar is going to earning a bit more than everyone expected!
See you at $55 and Beyond
GO PiXAR !!!
FYI, After Steve�s last CC... �No one was expecting a Tenth Anniversary release of Toy Story to occur this year�. IMHO, the video and DVD sales could add up to one very big number! (Better still, none of the analysts have that in their models!!! ;-)
TS 10th anniversary release date of 06-Sep-05 is considerably earlier than I anticipated! This means most of the DVD revenue will be collected before 2005 year end, dumping an additional $100m of revenue and net (the most handsome feature of Evergreen) to that previously published.
Goin to be a real good year!
Isn�t it interesting how a little slip in the schedule:
+ Put all of their future films into the prime summer time slot
+ Put all of their future DVD releases into the prime holiday time slot
+ Gave them time to work on the tenth anniversary edition of Toy Story
+ Gave them more time to work on a new deal with Disney
+ Gave them time to evaluate several distribution partners.
I guess that Steve Jobs isn�t as stupid as some of the shorts think.
Looking forward, thanks to �two DVD� releases in 2005
This could be Pixar�s most profitable year �EVER!�
Perhaps his next announcement will send Pixar soaring �To Infinity and Beyond�
(Or cause a nice little short squeeze. Wouldn�t that be nice? ;-)
I suspect that when Steve announced during the last CC that the Anniversary release of Toy Story (along with all its special features) wouldn�t occur until �next year�, he was really sending a strong message to Disney that they better start playing ball. Hmmm, now that we know the Anniversary release of Toy Story will occur in September of this year, one might start to infer that other exciting announcements are in the pipeline.
Boy, am I looking forward to next Thursday�s earnings announcement!
GO PIXAR !
Thank you tbs_theman for the link and thank you pixr646 for bringing this to our attention!
It sure is wonderful to see some of my Crystal ball predictions coming true.
(In most cases the timing has been much sooner than I expected ;-)
USA Today - 4/28/2005 9:12 PM
Movies - The toys are back in town
Toy Story, the landmark computer-animated film from Disney and Pixar, turns 10 this fall, with a two-disc 10th Anniversary Edition DVD set to arrive in stores Sept. 6.
A bonus featurette, The Legacy of Toy Story, includes interviews with celebrated filmmakers on the importance of the film, credited with launching the trend away from traditional hand-drawn animation.
Both the movie's picture and sound quality have been bumped up. Advanced video technology provides a higher digital "bit rate," and the sound has been enhanced by Lucasfilm's Gary Rydstrom, winner of seven Academy Awards and a member of the Toy Story production team. Other special features on the $30 DVD include a new "making of" documentary, 10 deleted scenes, early animation tests and a new music video of Lyle Lovett and Randy Newman singing You've Got a Friend in Me.
- Thomas K. Arnold
Hmmm, nine months of sales from an Incredible DVD followed by nearly four months of sales from of a classic "must-own" DVD.
Perhaps there were very good reasons why Simon Bax didn't want to give a full year estimate during the last CC... Pixar is going to blow the doors off!
I guess it is really true, April showers bring May flowers.
Here's to $55 and Beyond !!!
"'May' all your dreams come true."
Cramer gets a lot of calls right; unfortunately, you have to listen for more than just his buys, you also have to listen for the sells.
Apparently, you missed it when he told folks it was time to get out of Apple. If that caused you to lose 15% it is your own fault.
As far as Pixar goes, they aren't going to miss estimates like Apple did, more likely they are going to blow away estimates.
Using your same phylosophy, if a company misses estimates and falls 15% then a company that blows away estimates should rise by at least 15%
Only time will tell, perhaps you are right, a 15% boost from here would put the stock right around $110
Aren't many here predicting $55 after the split?
FYI, that equates to today's price plus the 15% boost you are looking for...
Yes he said buy apple at 42 also, its at 36, down 15%
By the same metrics of yours, pixar will be down 15% tomorrow?
By the way, cramer show is for entertainment purposes only, you really take it seriously for investments?
I enjoyed watching Cramer on CNBC tonight
He is currently negative on just about every stock you can think of yet,
When asked about Pixar, "it is one of the only $95 stocks that I would tell you to BUY Right Now!"
Cars is a year away. Upcoming earnings are irrelevant to the stock price: they'll be great. The only current "if" is which company will be the new distributor and what the terms will be.
In the long run, CG gets easier every year.