I just wantd to post this little introduction for ENER. Follow link and find "View an Introduction to ECD Ovonics" and pick your speed.
I believe their solar entity will be huge, but their Cobassy division will be big too. This division produces special batteries for hybrid electric vehicles. Currently supplying Ford and Honda. Will become the main battery for all Hybrid soon. This is a joint venture with Chevron.
But there is one division that will be bigger than all. The OUM memory division, consider the phase out memory or PRAM. This is the next generation of memory that will replace flash and DRAM memory for computers, cameras and all electronic devices. This is a joint venture with INTEL.
It does help. It helps reaffirm my skepticism. I'm not going to buy this companies stock because they don't have a proven track record that they can perform as a production company. I'm not interested in seeing how much they can grow their licenses to other companies.
It's nice to see that the Korean and Japanese memory companies are buying the PRAM licenses but everyone is assuming that PRAM will replace FLASH completely. Sounds appealing but what if it doesn't? At least with companies like RIG, I can understand the reason why their drilling services will be in demand for several years to come. With ENER I would be hoping that one of their neat technologies hits pay dirt. But they have been claiming that their ship will be coming in for years. I think I will wait until their ship actually docks at the port and then I will buy. I will make less money than those that guessed right but I will be less likely to loose money as well.
I call ERER a fad stock. It�s in fashion right now because of the recent escalation of the price of energy. Their solar cell technology and battery technology for hybrid cars makes them look like a good solution to the energy problem. Solar cells require about 20 years to recoup the investment by my calculations and that assumes prices per kilowatt that are higher than today. Only some places in the US can use solar cells with any hope of recouping cost. I have to say that they would make a nice addition to the roof of an RV. I will continue to keep an eye on the solar cell price per watt and the electrical grid price per kilo watt hour. If solar cells drop to about $2.0 per watt while at the same time the electrical grid increases to about $0.25 per kilowatt hour I think this technology will be a real winner.
Hybrid car batteries make more sense but they need to prove that they can turn this emerging demand to their advantage. PRAM is on the future horizon and so far all I see them doing is selling licenses to the big memory companies because they certainly aren�t going to build their own foundry from scratch. This would make them similar to RBMS in this regard. All of this is expectations of future earning. I don�t see them doing a whole lot today.
In hind sight, it is easy to envy the stock appreciation they have had. But I think anyone who buys now is taking a risk as the run up has already occurred and the company�s fundamentals do not justify an extended additional run up until they solidify these emerging technologies into a history of revenue and earning growth. I�m just too conservative for this stock at this time.
For those interested in ENER,
From a friend of mine in the business
ENER: Energy Conversion Devices.
I joined that company in 1977 and brought technology from the UK. The employee count was about 20- I had one or two good ideas that worked and whcih launched the company. ( I had to give an invited talk at conference in Lisbon a few months ago about how the a-Si technology bacame so big and my role in it- I have attached a paper- see at the end under section " Where is the original Dundee team").
ENER has always lost money- it always goes up on speculation and down on fact. It is riding high because of oil costs etc. ( ENER and the play Producers -close parallel)
ENER has extracted about $500m from other companies to develop solar. The company president has been called a charlatan by Forbes magazine- big article about the company about 1-2 years ago. I think that was being too kind.
Hope this helps.
Raybans - Since you have not gotten your feet wet yet, so to speak, I agree you have to play it conservatively and wait for RIG's earnings to come out. Katrina is always a hovering presence in all stocks that have to do with oil, and I don't know the extent of its deleterious effect on RIG. I have been invested with RIG since mid 2005, saw its stock price rise steadily by about 40%, and feel so bullish with it for the long term. I am fortunate in being invested both in Tie and in RIG for the very same reasons. They are in sectors where their product (or their service) is very much in demand but are in short supply.
RIG looks like a good buy, but I'm a little concerned about the hurricanes impact on 4th quarter earning due to the two damaged rigs and the temporary shut down of others. I'm not sure if investors will see past this as a one time event or if they will respond negatively. With the market declines lately I'm not sure investors are in the mood to tolerate news of a earnings decline in the 4th quarter. What do you think? Should I wait until after earnings on Feb. 14th? You comments would be appreciated.
Raybans - further on RIG (Transocean) Reuters in its 1/17/06 news article reported RIG's revenue backlog is now $10.7 billion, up from %10.3 billion. 95% of its fifth-generation fleet of 13 rigs was under contract in 2006, while 84% of its high specification fleet are now contracted for.
1. 2004 and 2005, Feb gains are anywhere from 20 to 30%. Sure it could be / is earnings expectation.
2. Market historically spiked in Feb after Jan dip for what it is worth ( more experienced people can give a read on historicals here )
3. We are http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/details?Symbol=tie&Refer=http://clearstat
ion.etrade.com/ stochastically speaking looking oversold with friday action in particular
4. We have decent fundamentally to begin with and IMHO ..transports still look good and aero is the growth area...
5. We are out of the OE doldrums and the "Crammers" are played out -- his ravings will have deminishing returns --which we already see..
Let us see what Feb brings !
Let us try to keep this board focussed on Ti and related info. Pl. I want to say this as polite as possible in this impers..e-msg medium.
If we must put some other topic, make sure we use OT with the subject.
You will save time for others. This is a great, cvil board. Thanks.
I like that suggestion. This is a good compromise as I have learned about a few interesting companies here on the TIE board that would be considered off topic. I look at this board has being a hang out for some good investors that happen to own TIE as well. I appreciate hearing what people have to say about their other favorite stocks. If we used the OT identifier then I see no need for anyone to complain.
I�m always rotating my stocks from companies that I feel have finished their run up to those that are starting or in the middle of their run up. I need good advice on picking my next stocks to rotate into. I have found that some of the companies mentioned here have been very interesting. I learned about MIND from this board and have made 30% in 5 weeks. I learned about ATI and made 20% in 6 weeks. I learned about CCJ and RAIL which I�m only slightly up on, about 4%, but I�m optimistic about their potential. I do appreciate these stock tips because I always seem to have some cash every few weeks when I decide it is time to bail out of one of my holdings.