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Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation Message Board

  • nickspinner Jul 10, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    WMC, the Molycorp of mREITs!!!!


    See you at 10!!!! Short the crud out of WMC and make big $$$$!!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • seems like you got 1 fellow, johnsonjoel1

    • Nick, I agree WMC is ripe for a significant spike down below the 52 week low, and I will not be surprised if we hit the mid 12's within the next 2 weeks, but your emotional posts aren't very helpful to board members. In my opinion WMC was irresponsible by keeping the dividend at current levels, for to most sober minds the current dividend level is unsustainable. It appears to me they have just postponed the inevitable: a dividend reduction...again.

      WMC will continue trading way under book value until they convince shareholders that the book value is done bleeding, and such convincing will take at least 2-3 quarters of book value growth. Until that happens, WMC will continue sitting on the floor, and finding new lows. The stock looks like a time bomb right now, poised to drop another dollar or two. Time will tell. GLTAL.

      • 3 Replies to johnsonjoel1
      • nickspinner Jul 10, 2014 1:42 PM Flag

        Couldn't have put it any more clearly or compellingly myself!!!!

        See ya'll at 10!!!!

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • "jj" - I'm trying hard to not look at WMC through my rose-colored glasses, but . . . after reporting an unaudited BV of $15.44 when announcing the maintaining of the $.67 dividend . . . what do you see as potential catalysts that would lead to the marketplace driving the share price that much lower than current levels? Macro-related developments?? If so, I would think that holders of ANY mREIT should be heading for the hills (or cash). Individual company performance, or lack thereof?? If so, what are you anticipating, be it for their second quarter results and/or going forward??

        If it's simply the market's perception of WMC (and I am not arguing at all that "perception is reality" when it come to the market assigning value in an equity!!), I don't disagree that it will take 2-3 quarters of suitable results (be it reported profit and/or improvement in BV) for the market to place a more appropriate value on WMC shares, however, from what I see (granted, a much less "intelligent" perspective when it comes to evaluating mREITs than many others here), the share price is already reflective of the marketplace's "show me" stance and resultant hesitancy to embrace WMC, and can't fathom the kind of continued share price depreciation that you apparently foresee.

        For me . . . seeing as how I'm a new holder of WMC shares (average cost of ~$13.50 after accounting for the payment of the current quarter's divy), and as such don't have to deal with the bitter taste of having seen my initial investment already whittled done by 15-20% or so (like those that may have been buying in the $16-17 range), I'm approaching WMC with "cautious optimism". Yes, there's risk, arguably (based in particular on the prior quarter's "fiasco") much greater risk than other mREITs, but IMO at the current share price WMC offers MUCH greater potential reward/return relative to it's price than it's peers.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • With both agency MBS and non agency MBS at or near their 1yr highs in price, I'm not sure why anyone would be all that worried about BV. 90% of BV is mid $13's so I suppose mid $12's is possible but not real obvious. Given that they will announce June BV in mid/late August (which should shake out in the low to mid $15's, I'm not sure why anyone would want to be short at these levels. $10 is obviously an absurd number.

    • nick you appear to be lonely now.
      I remember you have a few sby your side, like a000, we_is_losers, insaneman...
      Where are they now?

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