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Focus Media Holding Ltd. Message Board

  • mardob55 mardob55 Jun 20, 2008 4:16 PM Flag

    1st to Apologize to the Board

    Now that trading has ended, and the options contracts for June have all expired, let me be the first to step to the front of the line and acknowledge that I was wrong as to my prediction regarding the price direction of FMCN stock in today's trading. With the Market Makers as facing serious financial losses to the put contract holders that were "in the money" (30s, 35s, 40s, 45s and 50s) at the close of trading yesterday, I certainly thought that they would try to mitigate some of the financial loss by "manipulating" the stock towards the $ 30 price point today. Although my prediction for today's price movement was qualified to the extent that all bets were off if the news surrounding the general market continued to be extremely negative (which it was), I must tell you that I am still extremely disappointed in myself and hereby publicly apologize to anyone that invested funds based on my predictions. While I no doubt feel that FMCN is a great stock with strong underlying fundamentals that will prove in the near future to reward those who are patient enough to "wait out the string of negative economic reports and negative news events), I still feel that I let down myself and the good faith posters to this board. For that I sincerely apologize and ask that you forgive me. I know that we have a winner here ultimately, I just think that patience is the order of the day and I, too, have to keep reminding myself of that. Homer_z1 best said it in one of his posts when he stated: "FMCN is still growing revenues and profits". This is what makes them a great opportunity at today's low price. Again, I respectfully ask for your forgiveness relative to today's prediction.

    I am not a "pumper" or a "basher" and hopefully I never let emotion guide my decisions. I am just a small time investor that seeks investment in companies that have great underlying fundamentals, but for some reason, are currently being negatively affected by external news events, circumstances, etc. For disclosure purposes, I now am long 27,500 shares with an average cost basis of $ 27.73.

    I sincerely hope that everyone has a great weekend. I look forward to reading your comments regarding FMCN. Thanks for the contributions that each of you make and for the clean board that we are able to participate in.

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    • Regretfully - I sold my small number of shares today. Its been the worst stock in my portfolio. I'm sure it will move up now since I just sold my shares. The chart for this stock looks awful so I'm assuming most people here are long. There is always a place to make $$$ and it is not with this stock. It has lost most of its support the last 5 weeks and its now deep in a hole.

      best of luck to all.

      • 2 Replies to tradesharp48
      • Selling this stock at its low would be a mistake. This stock may get as low as $25, unlikely though. A lot of people probably don't much confidence in Chinese companies. I actually feel the opposite. I believe a lot of Chinese companies have more upside than most US companies at this point. With bad news in the US coming out everyday, bargain hunters will move into Chinese stock market once the Chinese market moves out of its current funk, probably in the next few weeks. The foundamentals are much better in the Chinese market than the US. They don't have the stagflation!! FMCN could easily gain 50% by the end of the year ($40 price target). How often can you find such a deal?

      • You are correct in that the stock has been through some pretty rough periods during the past few times (as have almost all other stocks that are traded). Thank you for you kind words and I wish you the best of luck in whatever future investment decisions you make. Have a great weekend.

    • To be 100% honest, I have been in and out of FMCN stock quite often during the past 2 to 3 months (estimated 15 to 20 trades). As most of you know, for the past several months, this stock has had daily moves of anywhere from $ 1 to $ 2 per day. Because of the tremendous volatility that this particular stock demonstrated and combined with the extreme uncertainty negative environment of the entire investing community, I elected to try to buy enough shares to where I could trade 20 to 30 cent moves and make a decent profit. I rationalized that if I was able to do this 2 or 3 times per day, I could make some pretty serious money. While I was extremely blessed to have my logic pay off, I found myself essentially tied to my desktop, laptop, cell phone, etc. and not making time to run my other business interests. I got out of the stock completely about 3 weeks ago as I did not like the general direction that the market appeared to be heading in and I decided to change my investment strategy and look for solid companies, that had great underlying fundamentals and yet for some reason or another were being unfairly discounted in value by the marketplace. After performing my due diligence work on several stocks, I concluded that FMCN and VISA were two stocks in particular that met the criteria that I had established for qualifying as a long term investment. While I established a position in VISA over two weeks ago, I did not start establishing my position in FMCN until about 4 days ago. While my initial 4 purchased lots were for 1,000 to 1,500 shares each and at an average price of around $ 28.55, I found myself wanting to commit more funds to my investment as the price continued to drop. During the past two days, I have closed 17 separate purchase transactions in which I have accumulated an additional 22,300 shares at price points that range from $ 26.63 to $ 27.85 per share. My goal is to hold these shares until probably late October or at least until the company announces its preliminary earnings for the 3rd quarter (post Olympics).

      I provide this information only because one of the posters to this message board respectfully asked me a question. I feel that it is only fair for people to know how much "skin you have in the game" and I have no reservations about putting it out there for everyone to know. That way they can take what contributions I make to this board and filter them as they see fit and understanding which side of the table I dine on (i.e. long or short).

      As to quarts55's remark I offer the following response. I am a good faith, hard working American that has been blessed over the years in many ways, not the least of which is financially. I do not brag about my successes because I have also experienced many failures in my life (both financially and personally). Please understand that I have just established a position in FMCN stock during the past 4 days so it stands to reason that my cost basis would be lower than some other investors that purchased their shares long before me. Why hold a grudge against me for that? If I have personally offended you, or any other investor on this board by anything that I have said or done, then I sincerely apologize as that certainly was not my goal.

      I have tried to publicly admit to you and to all other posters that I was wrong in the prediction that I made for today's price direction. Most of the other posters seemed extremely forgiving and accepted my apology for which I am extremely grateful. Again, if I have offended you in any way, then please accept my apology. I truly am not an arrogant person and am saddened that anyone would think that of me.

      I hope that you and all other posters have a great day and a great weekend . God Bless.

    • B.S. you sound like an arrogant ass, poor you paid $27 for your shares, I might be sympathetic if you paid $37

    • don't feel so bad. how did you avearge in at that low a price. you must have been in for over two years or tripled down today? I've been in since early this year and now own 10,000 shares at an xbar of 37.30.

    • 1) No apologies are necessary. I enjoy reading your analysis.

      2) People take responsibility for their investment decisions. If someone invested in FMCN because of your recommendation and lost money, it is their fault rather than yours. Therefore, please don't stop giving your honest opinion because you are concerned someone might lay blame to you if it is wrong. Advice on here is worth what people pay for it. ZERO. You've done nothing wrong.

      3) I agree that FMCN is good long-term. I think this is just a good opportunity to get in on the cheap.

      4) Oil and the overall market is killing some good stocks right now.

      5) 27,500 shares is not a small investor.