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Focus Media Holding Ltd. Message Board

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  • paultradestoday paultradestoday Jul 7, 2008 12:41 PM Flag

    Dam is this stock sick. Just cant

    billion-heir...if you are so bearish short term then please short it. there is nothing newsworthy that indicates more downside than upside in the near term. the bad news is priced in. With shares currently trading at 11x 2009 PF EPS vs. 25-30% LT growth and Q2 tracking according to plan, the current risk/reward is very compelling and with cash flow improvements now that they've paid for CGEN that will improve as well. all the news is positive (rumors are displaced by new company transparency). stock is oversold and the cover days are around 7 at 3m shares a day setting a possible short squeeze. when this starts to roll it will be a momentum play. this is the price area to buy or hold what you own. I own 12,000 shares and will hold.

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    • Paul,

      As always thanks for the great posts...

      The bearish sentiment is stemming from the overall market. I fully agree that FMCN is a very attractive fundamental stock with most bad news already out.

      It is too risky to short due to the potential limited downside and as you suggested a possible short cover.

      I am looking at the technicals and there is support at $26.15 which we are just bouncing off from. Once this support level breaks (due to a broader market sentiment) we will see the MM's manipulate the stock to drive it to lower levels until we see some panic selling... (I hope I am wrong)....

      PS: I plan to buy on the uptick of FMCN. I will be very happy to buy it back at $30.