.....agreed....I am hoping to have the short position at 12....hoping this POS will hold 12...my trading tactic: Slim Ball CEO and other insiders will do something to prop stock up to allow the lock-up period to expire...then it falls to 8-9.
....the signal that this dog was gonna go down is when the CEO sold stock at 14.50 into his engineered secondary....I only hope that they do not fire the CEO ...because if they do i think the stock will pop back up...
<<<seeyou> I respect Audio's researc,as he places the facts,as he see them, for all to see. On the FDG board, you have been negative on EGLE, without presenting the case, just your opinion. >>>
I`d like to think that`s not the case and suspect that you haven`t seen all my posts but I don`t claim to have anything startling to add to the debate that hasn`t been well expressed already. My doubts about EGLE lie with management and a suspicion of most IPO`s first year of trading. Always have always will. Shipping sector fundamentals simply added to my belief that EGLE was (and still is) overvalued for now.
I agree that audiophule has a good handle on this sector. I read all his posts on this, and other, boards and agree with them. I don`t intend to start copying and pasting them as my own so I guess my opinion is about all I have left to say without accusations of plagiarism.
Either way, EGLE has dropped almost 20% in a couple of days on heavy volume since I opened my short so I guess my opinion has benefitted at least one person so far. And I haven`t read any convincing arguments on the `buy` side either. If you want to talk about unsubstantiated opinion, I`d suggest that the "buy on this dip" crowd would fail to stand up to much scrutiny.
Thanks for your opinion - we`re all entitled to one.
Best of luck.
seeyou> I respect Audio's researc,as he places the facts,as he see them, for all to see. On the FDG board, you have been negative on EGLE, without presenting the case, just your opinion. You might try making the case like Audio, does so others can discuss your reasons.
Since I am in for the long term, I'll ride out the pumpers an dumpers.
on leval 11-smith-barney was on the bid most of the day on friday-authorities have been asked about it--i can not see city getting any more ipo-sec. offerings in the future from this group--if any thing is wrong EGLE might get damages from them as well as EGLE shareholders--
<<<are a lot of bull
Which, roughly translated, means that he has a negative view on a stock which has just fallen almost 20% in 2 days and has, imo, every reason to continue down to single figures.
An analyst downgrade did not drop this stop, nor did short-sellers (in fact, where is everyone?) or Audiophule`s critical posts.
If you want a smoking gun, look to management and the company. Insiders were selling at $14.50 a few weeks ago. The massive volume on this selloff is not a result of analyst opinion - its a reflection of the flimsy `house of cards` that is EGLE at anything over $10.
And as for "market manipulation" - that and `naked shorting` are the number one excuses made for a weak, overblown, stock that has begun a road of decline. Look deeper.
EGLE will bounce, but the down trend will continue. Much depends upon the next div of course.
As for the div. Shorts have pocketed more than
a year`s divs-worth of $ in the last 2 days alone. Total return must include pps movement as well as dividends received.
Best of luck.
In reading the downgrade the analyst simply states he expects a 25-30% decline in charter rates. He doesn't factor in the effect of having 2 more vessels to offset that possible decline. Vessel values aren't going to affect the earning ability of the co so mucha as the book value, which will track the health of the shipping industry. Factor in the avg age of thier ships at 5.5 years they have a very young fleet. Also read a favorable story about the future of drybulk shippers but a month ago...So if they want to drive the price down then that is what they will do. Being more than a sixty second investor i care little. What i do care about is that they execute what they have said and they pay thier preannounced dividend in the short term. The dividend will attract investors to this if they can establish a track record of consistancy. Seems like the stock is already factoring in the worst case scenario imo. With over 70% of the year chartered and 99.6% usage i'd say they are humming along this qtr. On the flip side we don't have a track record to look at.
and, btw, audiophule, you DO make some good points re perception of revs going forward. i just can't help thinking that citi's - great bank - analyst has his own agenda given they were excluded from the secondary.
does anyone have a cv on the analyst ?
where did he cut his teeth, so to speak ?
hey audiofool... only because this is soooo easy, i'll respond :
1. your message # 912 is clear proof that you have only the most simplistic knowledge of the business. as such, i just can't take anything you write seriously. now, if you're simply working off another person's thoughts/work, i can understand that, but it still doesn't translate into an UNDERSTANDING of the industry.
2. demonstrate that you know something substantial about the BUSINESS under discussion, not just message boards. maybe you can, i dunno...