Like others, I have invested here based on information available which seems to indicate not IF but WHEN we get good news. Early Sept and specifically at the key session on 3rd. Why the hell is the SP dragging then? I understand this is a simple minded questions but await higher level responses on the intergalactic thinking level. Aside from driving SP down to get on board, what's up?
My simple analysis based on inputs here . The news will be nominally (if not dramatically) positive. We all understand this is only the beginning of trials, clinical fine point testing, but it is likely THE beginning. The big guys have sold off some to take back the house money. Thay are low key/silent while shakeing trees to see what falls out. Too much of this is counter productive. Will they be able to lay in the weeds as time gets closer? That is the big question. As positions become increasingly more polarized they will have to fish or cut bait. Left alone the price will probably drift back up a little .If this is the case scenario then the price will build at an increasing rate starting soon....IMO. Else it is the big bang theory, which is n uncontrolled reaction and removes big guy leverage.
The whack a mole and incest selling of the last two weeks got me thinking too. I collected some theories from the MB and what I see elsewhere;
1)The short interest is relatively small, for a BT, so it is not likely the fear of covering that has shorts selling into demand,
2)Options are still in their infancy with CYTK, so the need to miss strike price is not a big deal at the moment,
3)Upcoming private offering with another AMGN-like partner? The R/S happened to attract and retain insti's, there is no need to further reduce SP to do the same,
4)Chance for quick profit taking by traders, maybe,
5)Shaking out weak hands? Maybe, already accomplished...,
6)The Dow taking a dive off the high board? Maybe a little, but CYTK has been known to jump in bear markets. MNKD & DNDN took a swim as well. Although the Red has been very deep for a week and futures look cautious so it may be a contributor,
7)BB's may be waiting for catalyst results to increase their position, and would rather do it at a discount? If so then thats a long road of catalysts to buffer...(if SP remains suppressed for the 2 weeks the I vote for this one).
....It may simply be all of the above and more that will become clearer. BB's and insti's are involved and will continue to be. It is a headache of success. The good companies like CYTK with strong fundamentals attract all kinds of fleas. It is impossible to hide and grow in the shade forever.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thanks for th insights. Seems the indications of lower big boy participation is dragging investors/slowing positve action down. Pre conference security rules tend to keep us off the headlines. Anecdotes from patients sound positive to the extent they provide some information. Well, there it is then...stand by to stand by..smoke if you got em.
You only lose if you sell....besides no balls no blue chips!!!
Still up 140% for the year...don't these funds have to take profits??
Sell into news...reduce exposure if I had a million shares..and was up 140%...I'd take some money now..say 250k shares...leave 750 and let them double..
that's a great question, nidan. i think one of the biggest things people miss is that the LBT isnt a guaranteed positive event. It is a binary event and the close watchers of stocks look at it thusly. Its high risk high reward in their eyes. A lot of us here on the board, myself included, believe without a doubt the LBT will be positive (Amgen backing into Japan and buying more shares, another LBT in the US, the presenter of the LBT being a leading cardio guy and a relationship with the FDA). However, this is also the less important set of data to OM... COSMIC will provide that data in 2014. IMO, you're seeing a beat down of the price by those that control it. There was a big short interest for awhile while the price was going down which kept dragging it down. There are 10 trading days left until the LBT and I do see that as a binary event. We could wake up to double or triple our stake or double or triple loss of our stake depending on the info. I think the smart people will see the info as positive, otherwise I have a hard time believing CYTK would take this route with the data when it was known two months ago.
On the other hand, you'll have dctrig come in here and say it was the reverse split. Yes, that didnt help but the pricing of that has already occurred and its time to move on from that still being a reason the price is down.
institutional owners unloaded recently and the SP has dropped. Went from around 50 percent to 36 percent. I'm not making this up either. Check the official nasdaq site. They have insitutional ownership around 35.8 percent. It used to be in the high 40s. The 13-F filings were due yesterday(or Wednesday) which show where insitutions stand. Yahoo key statistics don't reflect this yet, but nasdaq does.
Its all an illusion and you either know about, are a part of it or just plain ignorant.
Mutual Funds only have to report their stock holdings twice a year.
Using only NASDAQ institutional holdings can be deceptive because it does not include Mutual funds.
This was the reasoning to increase the PS so that these Fund Managers that were restricted from purchasing stocks under 5.00 had access to CYTK.
One example is T.Row Price. Last Quarter the sold a large portion of their shares, even though they repurchased 50496 back as of 6/31/13. Now their T.Row Price New Horizons Fund and Health Sciences Fund have been accumulating according to Morningstar.
Who's to know how many shares were real sold or accumulated is not that easy. I use NASDAQ,
Morningstar and Yahoo. I also know how the big boy make money off the ignorant.
Sentiment: Strong Buy