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Getty Realty Corp. Message Board

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  • ContraIndicator ContraIndicator Feb 4, 2004 1:06 AM Flag

    AFFO up 22% for the quarter

    It is fair to compare GTY with other REITs, but there are different kinds of REITs, so your comparison probably is with those that collect rents on property, versus the mortgage backed REITs that are more of financial engines that generate more money.
    I agree with you that GTY is more risk free than many other REITs including the MREITs that are still subject to various rate changes and more importantly, the perception of how those rate changes will affect lending return, even if the reality of their analysis is untrue - some investors had NFI figured out for the last year, of how it would fail, and now the same analysis is being made with LEND (and the analysis bears more credibility with LEND, though it may still misprepresent the truth of its stability - just a finger pointing at potential hazards).
    With the MREITs, you have greater potential for expansion, due to greater lending numbers, spreads, hedging, etc., with GTY, a good portion of its income comes from rent. I will reread one of your posts to review the source of the "enhanced" value, but as of now, I don't see much room for expansion given its business model and proclamation in its annual reports emphasizing, "on target" or something like that. Its goal is not to grow the business, but to provide a stable and reliable return for its shareholders.
    I agree with your prediction of GTY likely being closer to 30 than to 24/25, I'd say in 6 to 12 months.
    In that same time, I wouldn't be surprised to see FBR move from 25 to 30, NFI from 50 to at least 65, and if LEND is still alive and transforms itself into a MREIT, a move from a low of 33 to over 40. But again, with GTY, you can sleep much better. you get your 6% return and can trust that a correction of a full point on one day is unlikely. For this security, you get a dividend yield of 6% versus higher yields with the MREITs.

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    • d_manning Feb 4, 2004 10:07 PM Flag

      If GTY is so safe, explain the 4.38% or $1.17 decine in asset value today? Do you know why and can you offer an explanation ?

      • 1 Reply to d_manning
      • Could not get on this message board earlier -"server not available" for a long time, yet other boards were ok.

        When was the last time GTY was down this much in one day? Coincidental timing for sure that the day after I make the statement about GTY not moving down in large intervals in one day it does that very thing!

        Very tough market. Look at the MREITs - they got hit badly, too, and I fear what will happen with FBR today. Not because their earnings reported late last night were not very good, but because they were not spectacular. Crazy, isn't it?

        I wonder how much Greenspan's words have spooked the market, negating very good earnings report, stable earnings, etc. It's as though for the time being, nothing will satisfy the market but reassurance the rates will not go up, for a long time.

        A technical correction is overdue, and it's just a matter of time, but for now, it would not be surprising to see another down day, as more investors escape to the safety of money market funds until the dumpers have left.

        With CanRoys weak, oil companies weak, MREITs weak, the market weak, Greenspan not helping the situation, it probably shouldn't be surprising to see an oddity occur to the price of GTY.

    • What unlikely timing. This might never occur again but unfortionately for me and a good many more longs,it did occur,GTY did have a correction of more than a full point in one day. I added to my position but still came out on the minus side. I don't think my sleep will suffer though. Better luck next time and keep posting. Long term Buy.

22.72+0.38(+1.70%)Jul 29 4:02 PMEDT