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Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) Message Board

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  • system_architect_enterprise system_architect_enterprise Dec 26, 2012 9:14 PM Flag

    AEGR is a $720/share stock (math attached)

    No, actually, I'm using earnings. They are burning $38.93M/year and if they earn $1.8B then the burn of $38.93M is largely irrelevant. Sure it knocks earnings down to $1,761.17M but that doesn't change the math much.

    You would be better off arguing the patient population, though the deeper you dig into that topic, the sooner you realize that it is actually more than 10,000 and not 6,000 patients.

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    • No, actually system architect, qwport is correct. You took 300,000 (top line revenue per patient) and multiplied it by 6000 patients. Thart 1.8 billion is before expenses, and the manufacturing and marketing expenses are significantly higher than their current burn rate of 38 mill. You can expexct a 30-40% bottom line, and yes I also take issue with your patient base, because even if there are 6000 AEGR will only get half of them (not all are insured, not all will use JUX, etc) so your 1.8 billion becomes 900M, and that is 180m to 360m net, divided by 25 mill shares equals 7-14 EPS, which in this rosy scenario wouldake AEGR a $100-$200 stock. But I think the patient population is more like 3,000, and they will get half of that. That is, until REGN's drug comes on the market.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to faosto
      • system_architect_enterprise system_architect_enterprise Dec 27, 2012 9:46 AM Flag

        Your 30-40% scenario is not aligned with this company, or any biotech with a few products. The costs that were being put into clinical trials will more than offset the tiny manufacturing costs associated with the small production run required. If they were serving 50 million patients with dosing of 4x per day with special requirements you could argue the manufacturing could be more expensive than I'm projecting, but for 6,000 patients at 1x/day dosing is only 2.1M pills total. That is nothing in the biopharma manufacturing world. They could produce that part time in a small facility.

        But anyway. You can try to talk down the numbers all you want, it won't change anything. You could argue that due to the high cost, they will get zero patients, but we both know that is not true (same as your 30-40% joke).

        We will see where revenues and earnings are a year from now, and you can apologize then.

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