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Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) Message Board

  • hankmanoo hankmanoo Sep 23, 2013 5:40 PM Flag

    PLI v AEGR Part II

    .......significantly higher margins than VPHM is currently generating.
    VPHM has a current market cap of US$2.8 billion or 7x its current revenue from CINRYZE.
    Analysts believe this is still very inexpensive for companies such as Shire who would be able to fill their product pipeline. Biotechs with a market cap over US$1 billion are trading at an average of 10x FY15 sales.
    The first conclusion we draw from this analysis is that orphan drugs, even in a very small indication, can generate significant revenue. ProMetic’s first orphan drug should be plasminogen. With approximately 5,000 patients in the US and Europe and pricing of $50,000 per patient (a bargain versus $350,000 for HAE!), the market opportunity is ~$250 million. With PLI’s ability to “manufacture” its own plasminogen protein through its PPPS technology in Laval, we believe EBITDA margins could be in the 70-80% range.
    The second conclusion is that orphan drug companies are attracting attention from the major pharmas who are looking to re-stock their product pipelines. Recall that Intermune (ITMN) has a market cap of US$1.3 billion on the back of one orphan drug for pulmonary fibrosis
    The third conclusion is that the market is giving ProMetic little, if any, valuation credit for its growing orphan drug line-up or its proprietary PPPS technology that enables PLI to be in this market and gives it a low cost advantage
    We believe that one of its orphan drugs announced thus far (plasminogen, alpha-1 or 4050 for pulmonary fibrosis) could have sales and profits that could justify a valuation far in excess of the current market cap on their own. Together, combined with potentially other orphan drugs as well as its current business of selling resins and bulk active ingredients, could result in a multi-bagger from here
    Consequently, we continue to believe that ProMetic has incredible risk-return characteristics
    Doug Cooper
    Managing Director, Research
    Beacon Securities L

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