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Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) Message Board

  • yassen_gregorivich yassen_gregorivich Nov 19, 2013 6:31 AM Flag

    Forward P/E ratio of 30 & growth rate of 400%? Under valued!!!

    With EPS in 2014 projected to be ~$2/share this stock is trading at a P/E of 32 and a growth rate of 400%. Extremely undervalued.

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    • The 400% growth rate is unsustainable, but I do see it based on the calculated loss this year compared with the profit next year. The part you are missing is that the loss this year will be offset by gains later in the year, so the loss would have been higher. A better model is to use a pivot point of when the company goes profitable and compare the previous 12 month period with the subsequent 12 month period. Only then will you see the accurate/true growth rate in earnings.

      Meaning, if they were supposed to lose $1.96 this year and make $1.41 in 2014, that is a difference of $3.37 but what that doesn't show is that the $1.41 includes a $0.06/share loss in Q1 and $1.47 profit in the next 3 Qs, or $0.486/share per share each quarter which is $1.95/share annualized. So the growth rate is actually higher than 400%, but as I said, that is not sustainable long term. Maybe 400% in 2014 then 300% in 2015 and 200% in 2016.

      Revenues is easier but they will come in clumps. As soon as they start selling in Germany and Japan, each will get a block of patients all at once, so that will tick up strongly.

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