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Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR) Message Board

  • badabing_20 badabing_20 Dec 11, 2013 11:20 AM Flag

    Explanation please

    I do not own any stock in AEGR but came across it while editing a journal review and started looking into the company and analysts' opinion. I see there seems to be people who obviously own the stock and repping it up and others who most likely don't and are doing the opposite, but I wanted an unbiased view regardless of what you want the stock to do. Why is the stock going down even with no news on the front and the majority of analysts suggesting a buy with a much higher target price. What is the info that I'm missing here as this must mean some sort of sell off is happening, but why? This is obviously a very volatile stock as many biomedical firms are, but what are the red flags for this company? Thank you.

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    • system_architect_enterprise system_architect_enterprise Dec 19, 2013 10:32 PM Flag

      There is no such thing as an unbiased view, but everybody will give you their opinion nonetheless. The stock is going down because of a perceived change in the fundamentals. The next quarterly results will set the tone going forward. The main change is that initially the company gave specifics on how many patients were on treatment and now they no longer do that (they cautioned from the beginning that they would only do that in the beginning, so it was pre-planned & pre-announced that way - but it was still a change in the granularity of the information released). So people are uncertain as to the true growth in revenues.

      There is one guy here who lost his life savings shorting the stock who keeps whining about how there is only 1 in a million cases of HoFH but that is statistically speaking and based on grossly outdated information (well discredited long ago). The number of patients diagnosed with HoFH is what AEGR is using as their baseline number of 15,000 worldwide and 3,000 in the USA. However, it doesn't mean that all of them will buy the medication. Despite what the one short-loser harps on, who pretends nobody can afford it, people DO have insurance and it IS covering it, so the real question is to see how that pans out for the longer term.

      If you watch the options numbers there is a very strong speculation that next quarters numbers will be very high, but that easily could be people who sold the stock and bought the option to minimize their downside while still keeping open the upside. Downward pressure is also coming from those (like me) who took profits to lock them in before year end. Nothing particularly wrong with the company or stock but there is substantial uncertainty in the overall market and that warrants prudent steps which includes locking in stellar profits. I'm one of those who locked in profits and will be buying more shortly, though I want to see the new numbers next quarter. I want to see the growth continue.

    • There are no red flags in my opinion. They have a difficult product to market, but the disease they are treating is not that rare and the drug is finally moving outside of the US. I find it reasonable that after such a spectacular rise, the stock price may sort of rest, but the indicated target price still makes sense.

      Sentiment: Buy

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