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Rambus Inc. Message Board

  • yahoo yahoo May 2, 2005 1:06 PM Flag

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    • bamaincal,

      "my take on T&A is purely supply and demand following the action. T&A to me is not valid on such a stock that is so news driven."

      Again, TA allows me timing for execution of a trade in a particular direction (I do not open a trade in counter-trend direction) and it gives me "approximate" target prices to close that trade. That being said, nearly each of the moves that seems to surprise those on this board as "unexpected" and "overly" dramatic were shown to be points of probable areas of movement on my technical charts. There were even indications of the magnitude of the probable reaction. What is the least easy to determine is the precise amount of time the reaction will take. But that is really the least important of all the parameters needed for a trade. There are enough indications in the technicals that I use, that narrow most trade expectations down to a few weeks window.

      "if it had been then the price after the cafc would not have been so drastic."

      One more time. I buy or sell on the indicators to get myself into the proper position to take advantage of the most likely scenerio for the probable upcoming move. No guarantees in life, I just prefer to load the dice in my favor. I recognise that even loaded dice sometimes crap out.

      For your consumption, the indicators were expecting a large reactive move to being oversold as of Thursday night. I expected a bullish crossing of the stochastics to happen on Friday...it did, but even if it had taken a few more days, that didn't matter. The only way for the bullish crossing to happen is for the price to move up from Thursdays close...it did. As a result of the normal reactions in the price at this point in the chart of this stock, I expect that over the next day or two's trading that a significant ($4-5) pop will occur. That does not mean that I "know" WHY it will happen...just that I expect that it will happen with an 80% probability. (Understand that this also reads: there is a 20% probability that I will be wrong). I like those odds, I will bet them every possible time that they occur. And when the indicators tell me that it is time to take profits, I will be happy to cash out whether or not I have made a buck or as you say, something more "drastic" (should it happen to be 6 bucks, I could care less). I hope this helps with your scepticism. But it is not meant to convert you to a way of life. When the move happens next week, I will post back. If it doesn't happen, I will still post. Being wrong does not upset me. I realize that anyone can make an error in interpreting the technical indicators. I've been wrong before and I will be wrong again...in fact, 20% of the time. But that beats the shit out the coin flip philosophy that many people rely on.

      Good Investing, Ken

 
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