Justabettin et al,
Since it appears that folks would like to talk about this topic, we might as well have a distinct headline for refinery posts.
JB et al,
Well, our friend JB is falling down on the job so we'll have to keep the refinery thread going all by our lonesome. First, FTO reports reasonably good numbers:
Second, JB's $47.50 support level at VLO held yesterday and progress, so far, has been made on that today.
But the refiners are still the hound dogs of the energy sector.
Good fun & good putting. We'll be cheering for you on the Rathole sidelines.
BDI chugs along-- & so does DRYS ---without me.
Sold on a 25 point run-up here for me-
not sure how Sreet will react to earnings &
lower 2009 EPS projections.
Rates for now-- solid & strong as you say-interesting.
Justabettin et al,
One refiner trying to get its house in order:
Surveying the landscape as far as I can see this AM: the BDI continues its climb, the commodities themselves also seem to be holding there own although there aren't any major upward moves there as of this early hour. Tanker rates are also very, very solid--slightly over $79,000 a day for Suezmax's on a typical route. So the world economy looks solid as all get out despite slowness here. Will there be a little blip around the time of the olympics? There could be. There was one associated with Chinese New Year which lasts about as long.
The sunspot idea is something that I am going to watch. As I've mentioned before, any period of significantly colder than normal would have profound implications for world energy and food sectors to name just two. There will be plenty of noise of course. View this years news on the wet weather delaying the planting of some significant portions of the corn crop in the US. NOAA also predicts colder and wetter than normal ex-Southwest for nearly the entirety of the first half of the month with the 15th being the cut-off date for corn planting.
We have a club round robin championship today thru Sunday but it looks like we may get washed out. Many flights of similar handicaps grouped in sixes with 5 nines of different pairs, match play high point total wins. It is cold and rainy here now and it is supposed to be 50 and rainy on Sunday--not this 60 year old bodies idea of good playing weather.
"Great to have you back, friend"
Thanks for the kind words it means alot. Yea too bad I didnt follow my own advise. I was thinking we would go even lower. There might be a double bottom but Im still skeptical. Everything sort of rallied at that point. A fine example of the Justacator at work. You guys should know by now when I finally succumb to doomsville its time to buy.
Mrs Bettin and her friend were impressed with your recipe and my presentation. I was in the mood serving them on a white linen tablecloth on the patio wearing my Chef hat and apron. They had the merlot as I admit to having a few whiskey sours. A fine evening here in the Shenandoah Valley.
I cant play today as keeping up with this place is a full time job. Along with many other things the wet colder spring has kept me on the mower and alot of weed whacking. Its worth it to me however as I love a beautiful lawn. I have become friends with a couple pair of ducks who have nested here on the spring. Ducklings galore and about as cute as it gets.
Have a good day
Great to have you back, friend. That is a mushroom! Hope you enjoyed your venison, as well.
Finally, great, great technical call on the refiners. From the point that you noted it VLO rose from the bottom 5%.
Major league respect, sir.
On the refiners we're to get ready for a dead cat bounce or an actual recovery?
Im thinking deadcat bounce from a technical viewpoint. These things are hated. How would the dollar taking oil prices down effect the margins for the refiners? Would this bring relief at the pump? I have no idea whats going on in the supply side of things and how it would effect their margins. In my previous post I mentioned 52wk lows. That was incorrect as it was 2yrs. VLO is getting close to the 45 range in which was their low in March. The summer driving season makes it hard to believe we should not see some kind of bounce but things are quite different now.
I went to the chart and it seems 375 could be support. Not one to bank on but I also thought that to be the case in the $SPX not to long ago when it bounced off of 1275. You have to go to the 2yr to see it in which I cant post.
Thanks I have a nice chunk of venison thawed out and the materials for such a meal. I believe I will give it a go for tonight. I went turkey hunting Saturday with Mrs Bettin grandson who has become of age. We didnt have much luck with the turkeys but we got in a serious patch of morel mushrooms. These are usually found in Poplar tree groves but these were in a small stand of white pines. I wont overlook that again.
It seems we could have this dollar rally. The alorithm is showing a breakdown in the $ECC. If this were to continue I reckon support would be in the 147 area. Hard on our favorites but probably a future buying opportunity. If in case this would happen I believe Parks 840 mark in gold could be taken out as well. The $HUI is getting whacked at 388. I see support in the 300 320 area. Where that correlates with the price of gold I do not know.
On the refiners we're to get ready for a dead cat bounce or an actual recovery? CS downgraded VLO and perhaps others yesterday and today XOM basically blamed the refining component for the miss. Could be an opportunity, I guess.
VLO did, surprisingly, raise the dividend. Not a big deal, I guess.