Peter, all- from Barron's this am. Oil and gold have moved together for the past couple years until the past two months. Gold has pulled back 10% and oil has risen 20%. And recently the dollar has strengthened while oil keeps going up. An analyst said that from past experience, two out of the three times since 86, gold has risen 6% and oil has dropped 23% in the two months following. For whatever that is worth.
The other piece of data that keeps being bandied about is the fact that money market funds are 26% of the stock market's $13.5 trillion value, the highest ratio since 03. Lots of money waiting to get back in to something.
Another tidbit, we have 35 million acres of farmland idle in the US, maybe only 25 is productive. Seems to me we are missing a bet to provide products to a world that needs them, everyone wins. And we criticize the Saudis for not pumping more oil.
One last idea. Could Valero be a hedge against falling oil prices, result is better refining margins. Or is that too simplistic? Hare