All, sometimes I enjoy it when the market is closed so you can absorb some of the media nonsense. Example, headline reported by Bloomberg on a survey of analysts, "Oil may extend record increases". Go on to read the body, 54% say oil may increase in the near term, and "survey is correct 49% of the time". Doesn't say it is incorrect 51% of the time.
Just as bad for nat gas, maybe worse. "Natural gas may rise on hot weather". Survey, 39% think it will rise, down from 51% last week, 33% think it will fall. Annnnnd, "the survey is correct 51% of the time". Sounds like "may" is the key word.
What a waste of energy, theirs and ours. But, then again, we can celebrate a country where you have the freedom to print and say whatever nonsense you choose. Have a great Independence Day. Hare
They finally found some happy pills in some areas.
Check out the notes on manufacturing and the technical comments on gold (sounds a bit high - $2000.00 for gold?)
All, Day before yesterday, the NYSE's new lows list was around 700, 400 yesterday. If you are a long termer, there are some brand names on sale at attractive prices. The oil run can't continue forever but I've bought into Peter's scenario that the decline still leaves us with triple digit prices. And the equities don't reflect that level, take XOM in mid $80, not far from the low before the run up. Cheers. Hare
Make Peace Now,
Well, non farm payroll came in at -62K and two past months' revisions are an additional -52K but the market so far is breathing a sigh of relief that it was not worse. We live in strange times. Oil was up nearly two bucks again but the rise in the equity options markets have taken the starch out of it. Hopefully, oil will fall a couple of bucks. That'll allow the e & ps to go up 4% in a day.
Stuff and nonsense.
Make Peace Now,
I hope that no persons with fragile mental health read that Citigroup article. I read it as a reasonably together person and I (and I underline I) was thinking about jumping off a bridge. Maybe they should put a health warning on top of it.
Certainly, you cannot accuse them of not having covered all of the potential downside risks. A weak US dollar is truly a double edged sword. It is also clearly a help to portions of our manufacturing economy because it makes many of our products more competitive worldwide. It is, at the same time, an awful promoter of inflation. The idea that not a lot of us are thinking about is how much greater the inflationary pressures are in the developing countries than they are here. That means that we run the risk of some real governmental error or decided course to fight that inflation which would cause a real problem for the world economy. Were that to happen, I suppose, we could get deflation and a falling currency at the same time--weird.
Tom Petrie is on CNBC as we speak and I just heard him utter something which makes a lot of sense to me: the current downturn could last longer than people think. The culprit is identified as high energy costs. It continues to be hard to see how, absent a worldwide recession, energy prices come down appreciably.
Has anyone taken a peek at natural gas prcing recently? Front month is at $13.65--still less than 10:1--and UK front month natural gas continues to rise as front month is near $15. Natural gas prices don't rise during the summer (absent a hurricane) but they are doing so this summer and they are doing so internationally.
I think this analysts forgot to take their "anti depression" pill.
They seem either to be right on or everybody is reading their research.
In my own way I am on the defensive side:
bought AUY, ABX, DBA, COW, TWM, QID, and DPG (double gold).
I have a bunch of energy: SLB, HERO, CHK, RIG, NE, BZP, END, GTE (Gran Tierra - the other columbian mentioned in another post), PBR, MRO, NXY, APC, HLX, PRC, ABP.
Make Peace Now,
I hope that no persons with fragile mental health read that Citigroup article. I read it as a reasonably together person and I (and I underline I) was thinking about jumping off a bridge. Maybe they should put a health warning on top of it.>pddane
Bad market realties and forecasts illustrate one of the advantages of living where there are no buildings taller than 2 stories.
Peter, listened to Petrie also. I thought his comment that he has been surprised that price has not dampened Asian demand, but that he suspects that it will in the near term was interesting. Also, I liked his term, a practical peak in oil supply.
Also, something out from the IMF that the developing countries are a "world in crisis" when you consider food and energy induced inflation. They attributed 3/4s of the increase in corn consumption to ethanol production. Also, said there is no compelling evidence that commodity trading has affected price.
We have to give up our SUVs for compacts, but their's is a life and death issue. Hare
Speaking of hurricanes, there is a doozy of a tropical wave that got unleashed from the W. Coast of Africa yesterday and that looks to be beginning to get very well organized in very warm waters in the Eastern Atlantic. A week or so away and possibly not even materializing but something to keep in the back of one's mind.