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Vicor Corp. Message Board

  • isce_ille_iste isce_ille_iste Jan 6, 2011 10:46 PM Flag

    VLTR warns, precursor to VICR?

    Any comments or thoughts?

    <<Volterra lowers 4Q earnings, revenue outlook
    Volterra lowers 4th-qtr earnings and revenue outlook due to weaker-than-expected orders

    On Thursday January 6, 2011, 10:17 pm
    FREMONT, Calif. (AP) -- Volterra Semiconductor Corp. on Thursday lowered its estimates for fourth-quarter earnings and revenue, citing weaker-than-expected order trends.

    The company, which makes analog and mixed-signal power management semiconductors, said it expects net revenue for the three months ended Dec. 31, to range from $35.4 million to $35.6 million. The company previously had forecast revenue between $37 million and $40 million.

    Volterra also anticipates adjusted earnings per share to range from 20 cents to 22 cents, down from prior guidance of 24 cents to 31 cents.

    The new earnings and revenue projections for the quarter fall short of analysts' consensus forecast 28 cents a share on $38.4 million in revenue.

    "The customer inventory correction we experienced in the fourth quarter with our major customers in communications, server and storage markets was deeper than originally expected," said Jeff Staszak, Volterra's president and chief executive.

    The company is scheduled to report full fourth-quarter results on Jan. 24.

    Shares in Volterra fell 98 cents, or 4.2 percent, to $22.50 in aftermarket trading on Thursday. The stock slipped 8 cents to $23.48 during the regular session.>>

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    • The estimates for the 2011 EPS are $ 1.--. With this kind of growth rate I would assume, that a P/E of 20-25 plus should be justified. Presently approx. 26. If the the company can pick up Street sponsorship I would not be surprised to see the stock at $ 25.-- in 2011 means a plus of 66%. The short-interest is 1.9 Mio or 15 days turnover -. If the company confirmes their figures they will have to cover,not the first time they had to do so, look at the period middle July and late October 2010. Technically looks great, fundamentally they are on a growth path with their V-I chips.

    • When are earnings to be released ? I do not see a date on the company web site. It must be soon, since it was Oct.21. How about the Feb. 15 calls around $1, anybody thinking of a big VICR over the next month ?

    • Looking at the short-interest of this stock, isn'it obvious that somebody tries to push it down for a technical break. However, if it will not work, what is left, covering. 1.9 Million shares short - equivalent to 16 days volume. Will be fun to watch them cover.

    • You may be right. I note that PV, as I, too, now familiarly call him, seems to exercise his stock options but never cash them in.

    • PV has no intrest in puts. twas just a big seller who seems now to be done. hope.

    • VLTR was up over 3% as a result of their pre announcement.

      Vicor will have a good revenue quarter, possibly a record. Just look at their backlog at the end of last Q. The market is usually right, so maybe their bookings are down, or a significant holder is selling shares. Also, shorts usually do their homework (I do wonder if the shorts can really understand what Vicor is all about) and the short sales are way up, so something is happening.

      No analysis covers Vicor, and there are not earnings forecast. But, VICR is on an annualized run rate of over $1 EPS. They will put more than $.25 a share to the bottom line this Q. At $1 a share and a 30% growth rate (currently the growth rate it is much higher than that), we could easily see a $30 price. A higher PE as a result of analysis coverage, a higher growth rate, IBD coverage or a short squeeze could send the shares much higher. Vicor owns their land and buildings which are carried on their books at cost minus depreciation, and they have lots of cash in the bank. I am not sure if we are at a bottom, but if you are a long term investor, this is a very good price.

      The PFC is a game changer and it will bring in incremental revenue (the AC/DC market is huge and size and weight are critical for a large segment of this market). The VI chips inside the bricks will allow the brick business to grow at an accelerated rate, and the VI chip business will continue to grow even if their bookings are lumpy. Picor is growing at a good clip, and it will also eventually be spun off.

      The VI chips are the best product on the market for high end servers and their technology allows the server and super computer companies to build products that are not possible without the Vicor technology. IBM has testified to that effect. The storage, auto and telecommunications market are ripe for Vicor. I do not know if their sales force is capable of really understanding, attacking and capturing these markets, but PV has started a business development effort to go after the automotive market. This is a good first step. Does anyone know why an auto manufacture would not want smaller, lighter and more efficient power supplies?

      PV has engineered his company to be amazingly automated, from the point an order is placed till the product is shipped. He can build products cheaper and more efficiently than his competitors can overseas. The products are protected with a portfolio of patents. Taking everything into account, including a pristine balance sheet, and the ability to generate cash to either buy back shares or pay a dividend, it is only a matter of time till the shorts get squeezed and the stock pops to new highs.

      • 2 Replies to nochboy1
      • Time to market for PFC? How long will it be? How long was it before the PFM got to market.

        I don't see how the VIC in the Brick will allow the growth to accelerate. Standard bricks would be replaced by VIC Bricks and you would have the same customers since the Brick would still be the same size as the initial Brick design. Maybe the VIC/Brick gets cheaper so it gets some desing wins based on a lower price. Does VICR have an entry level product. Maybe that is it. I don't see any low priced entry level product for VICR since VICR always go for the highest power density. But once companies have the high end need they seem to switch to the high end capabilities of VICR but only as a last resort when no one else has a capable technology.

        I agree that VICR is out there by themselves.

        Bought before last quarter earnings, still hold, wish I sold like I usually do but will need too wait for the next earnings report.


      • Excellent informative post. Noticing the downward pressure on VICR and relatively heavy volume, it seems to me that some large holder is selling, though. One possibility is that Vinciarelli, who is 64, is buying a large put to protect his fortune. In other words, is some investment bank guaranteeing to buy a major chunk of his shares at, say, $15, and building a short position to hedge themselves? This would explain the apparent support at $15 - they are shorting it down to that point and no further. There is also the possibility that Sunlife, a major holder, who probably likes the stock for its relatively high dividend, is rebalancing its portfolio or that Manatuck Hill Partners is continuing to sell off some shares, but these possibilities seem less likely, particularly since you note the increase in the short position.

    • I do not believe there is any significant overlap in the customer base between these two companies.

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