While there are certainly positives about this company, the costs, risks, and competition in this arena, make me uncomfortable going long. Not to mention the environmental implications. Seems there is cheaper, lower risk energy to be had other than deep water drilling.
I also can't help but feel a little skeptical of all the positive articles pushing these cos. lately. I always suspect that the institutions are trying to prop them up, so they can get out and leave retail investors holding these stocks when they go down. Look at coal stocks selling at 10 cents on the dollar. Maybe these companies are the next wave to be phased out, or forced out by cheaper competition.
seems like you are trying to talk yourself out of going long.
environmental implications? coal is materially worse for the environment - witness China and their smog problems. that makes zero sense. what (or who) is going to force out drillers? coal's competition is natural gas, there will be a demand for oil. you're kidding yourself otherwise.
as far as your conspiracy theories, sounds like you have been bitten before, and i can't help you with that.
I have not seen any positive articles lately for drillers....except for sites like Seeking Alpha. That doesn't count. Shale prices are going up, deepwater prices will come down. It will re-balance at some point. I cannot say when, but I will take an almost 6% divy to wait. I am also no where near retirement, so that helps my case.