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Templeton Emerging Markets Inco Message Board

  • bond_dadddy bond_dadddy Jan 2, 2002 3:01 PM Flag

    profit taking in MBS REITs a buy !

    MBS REITs getting smacked down today .........
    nothing drastic but clearly some players monetizing gains for 2002 in what was one of the top performing sectors of the equity markets last year.................... this should be expected given many have losing positions that won't be above water anytime soon.......

    steep yield curve will stay in place or get steeper (my opinion) over next 6 months and make MBS REITs even more profitable ...........

    please bear in mind that the long end of treasury curve is trading off more than short end meaning yield curve steepening......this is GOOD for MBS REITs and increases net interest income............

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    • Hello Mr Gerry.
      Over the years, I found that a good forbes was a waste-basket forbes.
      Regards, Goofy

    • Gerimak writes:

      > Turns out a Forbes columnist at that time
      > wrote and article predicting {stuff deleted}

      The more stuff I read and hear on TV, the less I believe. I figure if those guys were so smart, how come they aren't retired and living in Florida on their investments?

      Most of 'em - like the sandbaggers on Wall Street Week - just want you to buy the stuff they already own so they can get rich.

      It is interesting to listen to, but best I can tell, most of it is wrong.

      Just my biased opinion . . .

    • bond, thanks much for your answers.

      I actually made some big paper profits during the LTC crash in 1998. By dumb luck I had rolled 50% of my IRA into a 30 yr trs mutual fund when rates were about 5.5%. Within a couple of months the long trs was at 4.6% and I had big profits. But, I was too dumb to sell then.

      Turns out a Forbes columnist at that time wrote and article predicting the long bond was on its way to 3%, and like a fool I bought it (the story - fortunately no more bonds). Shilling I think his name was. What a dumb-ass! Except for me - I was dumber yet to believe it!

      So over the next couple of months I watched as the long bond rate climbed back up, losing money every day. When it got back to where I bought in, I sold, so wound up with a final gain which totalled the interest paid during the time I held.

      Expensive education. Worth every dime!


    • There are a bunch of professors that say the stock market is efficient. It is stories like this and the silly NASDAQ run to 5000 that proves it isn't.
      Emotions often overrule the fundamentals and sometimes for quite a time. I guess that's why a few guys like Buffet, who sees thru the bs, get rich.

    • I added to IMH today at 8.20. I also own NLY, AHR, ANH, RAS, FB in this sector.

      Look to me like these are all still good for more upside, in addition to the unbelievable dividend yields.


      • 1 Reply to berkeleybob
      • I have to admit things look promising for AHR,AXM,IMH,NLY,RAS,etc. for about 2 quarters but the next dividend is about 3 months away .Shifts can occur because of the calculus of the market and focus changes.May want to average in(limit orders useful)before next declaration.Stay diversified and don't load the boat--things do have a tendency to blow up.Keep capital intact--If this is a secular bear market as I feel 9 to 10% annually will be a slam dunk with little hand wringing and sleepless nights.CARRY ON

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