Many of us have been posting for years that HLCS was basically smoke and mirrors and that they had no real niche (I started posting in 2008 when its stock price was > $4). I'm making the same call again for PACB. As they say, history repeats itself.
As I've said before, I think the situation for PACB is much worse than HLCS because the market is so much more penetrated and mature today compared to 2008. With PACB's high error rate, low throughput, and very expensive box I don't see who will buy their products.
My own prediction would be as follows: - mid 2011: PACB hits $7/share as they are not able to improve their current specs meaningfully ahead of where they are today, while their competition continues to improve - mid 2012: PACB will be close to running out of cash so they do a massive secondary offering. Share price hits $3. - mid 2013: completely left behind, PACB becomes a penny stock - 2014: delisting
This would put its trajectory on a similar path to HLCS.
It IS a tough time for new companies. If PACB can sell machines at prize tag <0.39M with a running cost of $3000/genome within 3 years, they have the chance to share the market with other competitors.
I was understanding the error rates of all machines are very close; maybe I missed something.
Sorry for Hlcs, a founder of the single molecule genome sequencers, not a bad company, just mis-judged the chances. They hate PACB to the gut, PACB CEO said something very bad about them last year.....