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Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. Message Board

  • deepanalyst1 deepanalyst1 Nov 17, 2010 1:25 PM Flag

    How to trade PACB in 2010

    I've been warning people for a while and realize that not everyone cares to listen, but for those who are open to have a collective discussion around trading PACB, here are some thoughts.

    The stock has clearly been punished and is grinding lower. Taking out the $12 support was the next step. Technically there doesn't appear to be any support for the stock, so dollar increments ($11, $10, $9) will probably offer some resistance.

    Fundamental analysis hence I believe is most important. With $250M in cash, that should be the main valuation support, which means that we should see good support at $5/share.

    The trick is that they are burning cash at $120M / year, so that is only near-term support. They will need to do a v2 or v3 instrument to be competitive which would probably be another 1-2 years. By then cash will be zero, and they will need to fund commercialization. All this basically implies uncertainty, and we know what Wall Street thinks of uncertainty.

    Given basically zero revenues, my basically conclusion is to sell the the stock now until it reaches $5 or so. Then I would go long once we actually have visibility on decent product specs that can compete with ILMN, Roche, or LIFE.

    In the meantime, get ready for the shorts to pile in. Then it will get very ugly...

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    • Very well spoken. Your one of the few that realizes the old saying(pigs get slaughtered)is true. The insiders already jumped off in the 17 range. With no revenue in a still bad economy, a serious lawsuit pending, and the new secret filing, there should be more bloodletting on this one. I agree though it's a good long term bet though if you can catch the real bottom.

    • Interesting price action the last couple of days. There is some buyer who has a decent order at a given price (used to be $12, now $11.50 which is setting a floor for the stock. Buyers who are either trying to drive the price up or who don't know the difference between market and limit orders send up "spikes" off this floor. Then the price crashes back to the floor.

      When these buyers are exhausted at these floors, the share price gets punished as the share price struggles to find support.

      Volume usually picks up in the last hour or two. We've seen some huge blocks trade hands. End of day has usually been when the selling starts in earnest.

      I think this buyer at $11.50 will be exhausted soon, then look out below...

      I can't understand who would be buying this company at these very high levels. I stand by my near-term of $5 as support. Being a buyer of this stock is very dangerous right now, talk about catching a falling knife!

      Best wishes to all.

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