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Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. Message Board

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  • chromatim46 chromatim46 Nov 28, 2012 8:42 AM Flag


    IMO, the stock will take a dive once the CEO stops supporting the price movement with his purchases.

    Analysis of PACB:

    The Pacbio is just too expensive and has an unacceptable error rate of ~14% compared to Ion Torrent or Miseq (error rate of ~1% and ~0.1%).

    Basically Pacbios are relegated to niche status, and will probably never sell in the amounts require to produce a net profit. They will never be massed produced.

    Since they have the longest available reads, they're good for some tasks like de novo assembly, but I don't see why companies can't just do most of the work on Illumina or Life platforms and pay a fee to have one of the few labs that already have a pacbio to patch up the gaps.

    Lastly, there's an upstart company called Oxford Nanospore that has claimed that it can perform 10,000 bp reads (as compared to pacbio's current 3,000 bp reads) for less than $1000 per sequence and no equipment cost (compared to pacbio's $300-$1700 cost rate and $700,000 in sunk equipment cost).

    It's a lot of hype and they haven't presented any solid data, but if they can live up to their claims, Pacfic Biosciences is basically dead in the water.

    Oxford Nanospore promised to commercialize their platform in the first half of next year, this why I think a lot of people aren't showing up to PACB seminars or purchasing their machines anymore.

    Can anyone share with me the bull case on this stock?

8.95+0.13(+1.47%)11:12 AMEDT