Reminds me of the time I was working on a project in Latvia. I needed a piece of equipment delivered to the site and it would never come. I'd call the guy up and ask him when was it going to get there. His answer "Mebbe today. Mebbe tomorrow. Mebbe Chreeestmas." That's the way I'm starting to fell about this dividend announcement.
20 cents? You musta been at that Denver smoke-in and inhaled waaayyyy too much.
Thank your lucky stars at 12 cents. Get ready for 10.
I would not put it past Grupo to reduce the dividend to 5 cents or even eliminate it entirely to drive the price down so they can buy more on the cheap. The capex budget gives them plenty of "prudence" cover against a breach of duty lawsuit. It really comes down to how much Larrea wants out of Grupo via AMC.
Why would SCCO increase the divident? The answer is to make SCCO slightly more appealing to some shareholders (especially GRUPO) and to perhaps amp-up the share price a little. The disadvantage is the loss of cash which would be used for CAPEX and less debt. Additionally, IF I'M CORRECT in stating that a higher divident MAY amp-up share price ....... then why would SCCO do that IF they're still buying shares.
Your .20 estimate would put the divident at about 2.6% at today's share price and represent a huge percentage increase ..... I don't see that happening.
In the final analysis, there's only one thing that really matters ..... what does GRUPO want to do. If you're correct and the divident goes up what does that tell us ..... that GRUPO has a better use for the cash than SCCO? If so, that prompts more questions.
My guesstimate is the divident will remain where it is.
Everything you say is true but keep in mind that SCCO has a long history of erratic dividents, sometimes way then way low so although in % terms an increase from 12 to 20 is huge it is only a few pennies really. However, I admit it is an optimistic guess. One can dream though. GLL