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Chesapeake Energy Corporation Message Board

  • igmos00 igmos00 Sep 2, 2009 9:34 AM Flag

    EIA about to show that

    demand for oil likely went up because of the 1.3 million new cars sold in august. efficiency does not make up for increased driving and increased economic activity.

    nothing wrong with oil demand imo

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    • Sincere thanks for your response Igmos. I suspect most of the oil that is easy to get has already been extracted. Obviously, the oil that we are now extracting comes with a higher cost of production. I am personaly undecided on peak oil but if peak oil is in fact real it will have a huge impact on the world economy in the years ahead. I invest like its real and I worry about government policy with regard to energy so I guess one could say I'm between 50 and 100 percent pursuaded that its real. Peak oil is probably as much about growing global demand as it is limited and economicaly feasable supply. I agree with you that oil probably can't climb at a rapid pace over a number of year because the higher prices will kill demand.
      Please let me clear up my views on electric cars. I am not against electric cars. I am against journalists that report about electric cars and fail to inform the public about this technology's limitations. I don't believe the public is ready to embrace electric transportation until they are ready to embrace nuclear energy. I hope the Volt is just the product to rescue GM but I have to be realistic too.

    • As I suspected this is more an issue for Prius than Volt and Tesla:

      The Prius use permanent-magnet DC motors for their drive train. These are less expensive, but need the rare earth materials in their construction. The Volt and the Tesla use AC induction motors - lots of copper wiring.

    • Bill,

      Those rare metals are used in the Prius because the prices are still reasonable. Magnets come in many flavors.

      Lithium is an issue in batteries. Other batteries will be developed.

      There is very little chance that you are right but some chance. I do intend to look more at the issue and I suggest you do the same.

    • If Im not mistaken there are 2 crucial rare metals, 95% of which are mined in China that are critical to electric cars. Therefore apart from the majors using it to lobby for govt money, it will be a very long time before electric cars will come into mainstream.

      Instead, public transport will become more prevalent. I would also put more money on bicyle manufacturers than the current electric car makers......Ever look at an electric bicycle?

    • Mori,

      You and I come at things from different angles. Nevertheless, I am glad to help if I can. And yes I do believe I can.

      What I am about to tell you is a bit complicated but you have to try to follow the logic because it makes sense. Trust me.

      Peak oil production will of course happen. There are of course geophysical limitations (unless professor Gold's theory of a primordial origin is right, which is very unlikely). But peak oil in practice is an ECONOMIC concept. How will humans arrange their economies to exploit increasingly expensive reservoirs of oil. Won't we simply re-arrange our structures before we decide to sink resources into pumping oil from the artic, say. You have to keep in mind that the oil extraction becomes a logarithmic enterprise if the recovery demands large inputs of energy.

      Now people are starting to forget that we are still in a supply constrained regime. So the price of oil has the potential to spike up. But I am not as pessimistic as others about the long term view of oil -- so NO I don't subscribe to the idea that oil will keep on climbing to higher and higher prices in a decade time frame. On the other hand, production is likely to plateau.

      How is this possible? Mori you belittle the power of electric cars for no good reason. Just think a little here: you can actually pump out 10 million electric cars into the US and affect the power grid only at isolated overburdened locales.

      Think of what I just said. Practically an entire year's supply of cars with only marginal burden on infrastructure.

      What does that mean? Not much for a decade or so. There will still be upward pressure on oil. After that, however, it can indeed make a difference. It will force producers to contain oil costs.

      Just my opinion

    • So the EIA report is about in line with expectations for the crude inventory drop given that imports went up from the average.

      Some backsliding from OPEC likely offsetting some increased demand above the trend. Overall nothing spectacular. As expected pretty much.

      Now there is the issue of whether driving will dip and car sales in September. They have to stay above 700000.

    • but they traded a clunker so the net effect would have been nil...

      most new cars had 30 to 50% better mileage so I am not sure your assumption is correct.

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