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Chesapeake Energy Corporation Message Board

  • manunited1919 manunited1919 Mar 20, 2013 1:05 PM Flag

    Who should I believe?

    On the one hand, Anal-ists are telling me SELL SELL SELL. CHK B/S is stressed, they need to sell assets, and they will not be able to execute on the 3 billion asset sales which they are aiming for this year. Also, NG prices going up do not benefit CHK because they hedged 50% of the NG for 2013. Never mind that they don't know if the 50% hedged was front loaded for the 1st/2nd quarters or whether it is 50% hedged evenly distributed throughout the year. NG can go to 5 and there will be no benefit to CHK. Oh, and CHK's B/S is so stressed that they will need to beg to fire-sell their core assets. At the same time when anal-ists start raising their voices, the algos on their sell programs kick in, Forbes, SA, WSJ all publish negative articles on CHK.

    On the other hand, the Bond Holders just priced a transaction with CHK for 2.3 Billion at par. #$%$ is going on? Did the smart money just become dumb money? Why didn't the bond holders extract a pound of flesh from CHK to refinance that transaction? Don't bond holders expect NG prices to collapse any day now? Don't they know that every 10c change in NG prices impacts CHK earnings 100 million? Oh, yeah... They do know that. Maybe that is why they refinanced at reasonable terms to CHK. It seems CHK had to wait for NG to pop before being able to get the terms they needed for the refi.

    F...k. I am so confused now. I just wish Cramer would not pussyfoot anymore and just come out and issue a warning on CHK, demand people to SELL SELL SELL.

    Then I would know it is time to back up the truck!!

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    • glasscase Mar 20, 2013 1:56 PM Flag

      IMO anybody can sit behind a computer screan and be a analyst. I am more impressed by people who put $$$$ into the game. Icahn has 50 million shares/ reasons to believe CHK is undervalued and will ultimately rally hard. Keep in mind Icahn actually has to see this thing rally hard to make his investment worthwhile. Many years ago a wise and rich investor told my to keep my eyes on the money. Go where the money goes. Some people believe that Berkshire may be interested in buying CHK so they can get natural gas for the train line. Follow the money. The problem with investors today is that they are not investors....they're traders. This pick may take more than 4 days to make serious gains. When NG in the US start rolling it will be the mother of all rallies....just like oil back in the day. China and US will be fighting over this commodity. Mark it.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Buy! Why wait till it's $25-30 and then you have upgrades and Cramer saying buy, buy when know one wants it, and sell when everyone wants it! Right now I am bidding for some 2015 Calls. I am in heavy in this stock and still adding! You make your own decisions, but, I would not listen to anyone on these boards! I'm long lots of CHK and still adding on pullbacks, one day I will be the one laughing when I post my actual sells on the baords

    • gut feeling

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