Remember, the 2% only deals with the improprieties AIG recognized so far on the Gen RE deal. In its statement, the spokesman said that AIG cannot assess the extent and size of other adjustements, inferring that the other investigations may result in adjustements of their own.
I work in reinsurance, and the world of captive insurance and risk transfer is very complex. I know AIG will put all their resources to assess the extent of what the regulators will deem as transactions with no commercial substance, but it might take a while to get the correct and complete figure for all the transactions with possible improprieties. The other way this might all conclude is that the company concedes to an aggregate figure for all doubtful transactions, makes the adjustement, pays a large fine, severs 'control' ties with all the offshore resinsurers, and puts in place safeguards and controls to avoid this in the future. Whatever the case, and now that the Sage of Omaha is in the picture as well, expect more scrutiny and publicity (a business reporter's dream). It seems the WSJ is intent on getting it all out to the public.