The 80% dilution of stock, the warrants, is not a given. That is simply security. I dont know and apparently most people dont know what is really there. It is possible that nobody knows. Leadbelly is often pitied because he sold "Irene, Good Night" for the low low sum of $500 in 1930 something. What few know is that he sold it about six times that day.
It is possible that when all this crap is undone, we will see that the various securities were not secured by the underlying mortgages but rather, other derivatives of those securities. Very possible. Then the only issue is how many layers are there? This is tantamount to selling the same asset more than once.
In any other world or environment this would be a crime.
Wall Street is organized crime. Sanctioned crime. And every few years when someone gets caught in the furor of public attention the regulators open their heavy lidded eyes and move their fat asses and appear to do something consistent with public opinion.
But at under $300 unless their insurance business is a wreck, which it cannot be, as I understand it, you are golden.
If three years from now AIG is $30 I will have made 15% per annum on my money and that is fine with me.
I have enough riding on one bet.
But congrats to you. YOu are a true blood in the streets truffle hound. I saw pink and bit. You waited for the blood!