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American International Group, Inc. Message Board

  • kmcmahon38 kmcmahon38 Mar 18, 2009 9:47 AM Flag

    Buy AIG Now For Three Reasons.....

    1. Ben Bernake said that they are committed to the plan. They have committed so much money to AIG at this point the government refuses to let it it fail.

    2. The 80% government ownership of AIG will NOT increase. Why? Because the public outrage if the government gave them more money would create riots. So we are guarenteed to the government wont take a bigger stake in this company.

    3. From here any new news is good news. An imminent bankruptcy was already priced in, and is now clear it is not going to happen. If upper management is removed because of bonuses, stock will go up.

    In my opinion this is a no brainer folks. Will require some patience though.

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    • and support a company that has and continues to rip off American taxpayers. Wait till Obama and Congress gets done this week...back to the .30s. Try a max tax on AIG for starters according to FOX this morning.

    • you clearly don't get that they are dismantling this company. how do you predict the 'E' when the only known quantity here is that they are actively marketing everything outside of domestic P&C and Life? here's the rub: pre-crisis AIG FP was 30% or so of the bottom line, that gets you to $9b peak earnings pre-crisis, then you subtract at least half of that slated for sale *if and when buyers actually emerge*, that gets you to $4.5b at best. OK, so future earnings capacity when all is calm and markets are functioning normally - Great! how far out is that? what is the total carry on the gov't's financing? how much additional debt is being accrued just to pay for the mess? stocks at best look at 18 months. this mess is years off from resolution. buying the stock is an option at best which means you are buying volatility at best. there are no fundamentals worth mentioning any longer - it's gone.

 
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