AIG will surprise on Q3 earning on 11 Nov and stock will skyrocket. AIG surprised on Q2 result it jumped to 50+ and after that stock has been trading in 38-to-47 range. I think it might hit 60+ after Q3 earning. I don't see any downside(other then gov debt) as banks are doing much better, most banks declared better then estimate earnings, and market is stabilizing.
60 is the very low ball estimate you are giving i think since it almost tried to pass that level 2 times long time back...i am guessing it might hit 100++ after earnings...if you remove the debt there is no company comparable to AIG that is trading at such cheap levels..for a company that generates $100 billion+ revenues a year that is a small debt.
my analysis if correct suggests I see a huge runup into earnings and if it surprises it will be a game changing event for AIG since it will be a second qtr in a row to post strong numbers....since 2007..i am not saying it will return to $1300 level where it was in 2007 but yes it will be significant.