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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Mar 6, 2013 12:05 PM Flag

    Confirmed - Peak Coal in China

    It is now confirmed that China's coal production PEAKED in 2012.

    According to official figure, China has roughly 100 billion tons of coal reserve that could be produced. China is digging nearly 4 billion tons per year. One can easily see that it won't last very long at this pace.

    The data finally confirms that China's coal production Peaked in 2012.

    China imported 289 million tons of coal in 2012, versus 182 million tons in 2011, up +58.8%.

    Tonnage-wise, China produced 3650 million tons of coal in 2012, versus 3520 million tons in 2011 . That's up +3.7% y-o-y.

    However, coal fired electricity generation in 2012 was 3855 billion KWH, versus 3825 billion KWH in 2011. That's up only +0.78%.

    Based on coal fired electricity generation, it tells that the 3650 million tons domestic coal produced in 2012 only contained the same energy as 3442 million tons of coal in 2011 in terms of energy equivalence.

    Compare that to the 3520 million tons actually produced in 2011! It says that China is digging out more coal but still getting LESS energy from the coal, as coal quality deteriorates. That is clearly a sign of Peak Coal.

    That is very bullish for coal internationally and bullish for US coal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Yes, the data proves that China's domestic coal production peaked in 2012. They can try to dig more tonnages of coal, but they actually get LESS energy as the coal qiality becomes inferior.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to cadmium_telluride
      • That's right. According to Circle of Blue, mining one ton of coal destroyes 40 tons of underground water resource in Northern China. Shanxi Province, the No.2 coal producing province in China, produces 1.0 billion tons of coal per year. That means 40 billion tons of clean water supply destroyed per year. The capital city Beijing is aching for 5 billion tons of water per year. Coal mining destroys 8 times as much water as Beijing consumes per year.

        The central government of China, they themselves live in Beijing, is painfully aware of the fact that coal mining costs them water that they don't have. The policy is to limit domestic coal production and encourages more imports. Consider that China consumes 4 billion tons of coal per year, but global coal trade is only 0.8 billion tons per year, China's shift to coal imports is extremely bullish for the global coal market.

        China's coal import in 2012 jumped to 289M tons from the 182M tons level in 2011. Are people blind to the data?

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Some in this forum also seem to forget that China is sorely lacking quantities of an essential ingredient for the production of coal resources,that being water...The Chinese are desperately in need of potable water,and the production of domestic coal resources takes away from an already inadequate supply...My dos centavos...HOG

    • Peak Coal in China is very bullish to the global coal market.

      Regardless of whether you agree with Peak Coal or not, it is a fact that China's coal imports boomed from 182M tons in 2011 to 289M tons in 2012. We could easily see another 100M tons gain of imports in 2013.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • don't trust anything Chinese say. Full of #$%$

    • Go search for "Peak Coal in China".

      The data proves that China's domestic coal production peaked in 2012. They digged out more in tonnages, But those coal contains 5% less energy. So they are getting less for more. That's Peak Coal.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Peak Coal, A very provocative term. Where did you get your official China figure?

      • 2 Replies to dabrogg
      • The China figures are widely available, some in English sources and some in Chinese sources. I can not post the link. But the figures are confirmed by multiple sources. You should be able to do basic web search to find out yourself.

        China has reached Peak Coal, that is a fact of life. Very bullish for coal.

        Regardless of whether you agree or not, don't you think that China's coal import going from 182M tons to 289M tons in a year, is a giant leap? No. 2 Japan imported 190M tons, in comparison.

        China could have imported more. China was blessed with excessive rain fall and unusually high hydro-electricity generation, resuling in 100M tons of coal consumption saved as a result.

        So in 2013, just on the simple count of China's rainfall falls back to a normal level, China needs to increase coal import by another 100M tons just to break even, every thing else considered equal.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Another Yahoo Screw UP. when you click on a post you have No Idea on Which Board it was posted.
        Will there soon be a unified effort to start a FIX YAHOO BOARDS, board?
        Then we all could SPAM the hell out of yahoo!!!!!!!