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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 1, 2013 12:50 PM Flag

    The Shorties Are Working Overtime So I Gave Up!

    Looks like the shorties are working over time to bash coal stocks on MSG boards.

    So I give up trying to convince people to hold on to coal stocks. But not give up the stocks.

    Good for me that I expect to receive $30K before Friday. I am going to use the money to buy more.

    My timing had been off, but what will come, will come. There is a super coal cycle looming.

    Last year at the start of April I projected the start of recovery of natural gas price and projected that by fall the storage level will reach a normal peak of 3850 to 3950 BCF. I was the only one making that projection. and I was proven right.

    At the beginning of 2012 I predicted Peak Coal in China. I was proven right once again. China produces more coal in tonnages. But the coal produces contains LESS energy. That's a clear sign of peaking.

    I project that natural gas supply will collapse in 2013. So far things are moing in the direction I projected. Storage withdraw is larger than explanable by weather factor. This indicate production is already falling fast. Natural decline of production due to well declines will be a 1% loss per week. You do the math.

    Hold on to coal. This is the best investment opportunity you can find in the next ten to twenty years.

    Nothing more need to be said. Any repeat is a waste of my time. If you don't listen you don't listen. If you listen you do not need me to repeat all the bullish arguments.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • edgordon Apr 1, 2013 4:22 PM Flag

      ACI, ANR, JRCC: S&P DOW all time highs massive bull market and EVERY day these stocks are down. I have read and been reading all the arguments for 18 months and have been of the same opinion as yourself and others. All the elements lining up. NAT GAS 4, NGAS PONZI SCHEME and FRACKING 2013/14 EXPOSE, INDIA CHINA EXPORTS, OHIO PROJECT, CONTRACT COAL PRICES UP, COLD WINTER, WELLS CLOSED,NG SUPPLIES DOWN, NG producers out of money ETC ETC

      YET coal continues to go down down down....... When JRCC went under $2 I bought another 20000 , ACI under 6 another 10000, ANR under 8 another 10,000. Really frustrated and GENUINELY worried that I have made all the wrong choices. Sometimes I tell myself just go away for 6 months but thats hard to do when your total retirement is on the line. Just speaking out loud here and hurting and if shorts take some pleasure in my doubt so be it. I find their posts despicable and mindless.

      It's just so hard to watch coal go down when the markets generally are flying and I really dont UNDERSTAND why and in truth it doesn't matter why as all that matters is the price and the price right now is way off and not good. End of rant.

      PS...... Hope your right and in truth I do respect your views and the views of other longs and have done for quite some time. Just having a bad hair day

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 2 Replies to edgordon
      • Its going down because the market makers want your money. Do us all a favor and give it to them so it will reverse!

      • I share the same frustration that you and other people have. I know precisely what you feel, because I feel the same. All the positive fundamentals are lined up but yet coal still has not moved. What's wrong.

        What I did is I repeately exam the things I look at, exam the data, and try to figure where I could have got wrong. There is none. All the data are there.

        So what do you do? If you believe the fundamentals, hang on tough. Ignore the noise. It's easily said than done. It's not easy.

        But remember one thing, the start of a bull market is MEANT to be frustrating so that as many as possible longs are flushed away, before it really begin to move. And then when it does begin to move, it's not possible for the by-standers to come back on board.

        Evidence? Look at shipping stocks. I always believed that shipping stocks WILL come back. The sector will come back. It just take forever for the sector to turn around. I watch that sector regularly trying to figure out when is a good time to come back. A few weeks ago I thought to myself, EXM at 45 cents a share is ridiculously low and maybe I shoudl by some. I never did, had I bought it's already more than double by now.

        The point is opportunity only belongs to those willing to tough it out and hold firm, butdoes not belong to by-standers. I hope this is not yet the start of shipping rally. I hope that sector can languish more so when I make my profit in coal I can still come back. But then probablyI already missed the ships.

        Stick to coal. Do NOT miss the coming rally.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Cadmium,I have enjoyed your posts..I happen to lean the same direction as you,and I guess misery does love company. :-) IMO,coal will return as a recognized necessary and vital energy source,although we may be a tad early in that call...Personally,I like buying cheap..I too believe that nat gas will continue to rise in price,if for no other reason that the producers can control supply...Good luck to you,HOG

    • There's an expensive investors paper called the Wall Street Transcript $1995.00 a year that wrote an article last year predicting a 5 year up trend in Nat Gas..

      • 1 Reply to takemeserious2004
      • You don't need to pay $1995 just to get an idea that coal and natural gas prices are going up. Any one care to spend a bit time researching the market fundamentals know that already.

        Sectors, especially a basic commodity sector, goes up and down in cycles. We are now down at the cycle bottom. If one is to say that this is it it stays at the bottom forever and that another cycle high will never come, he is attempting to throw away all known economy 101 principciples known to human kind. I don't think economy 101 ever fails.

        The coal super bull cycle is coming. I was off in timing, but NOT off in the eventuality that it is coming. Stick to coal. As I promised by Friday I am buying a lot more.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy