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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

  • thethirdchimp thethirdchimp May 2, 2013 11:22 AM Flag

    NG Reserves At 43 bcf vs 30 bcf as expected...

    this caused a big one day drop in NG futures and probably caused the abrupt change in direction and drop in coal stocks... they say a swallow does not a summer make, and I'd say one reading of NG reserves does not make a trend... the trend is higher utilization rates for NG and lower production rates... coal will have it's revenge.. long coal

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    • Versus.....30? The key is the 5 year running average. Storage averages are slipping further below it during "Springtime" . Albeit, we did have an exceptional deviation from the 5-year average on the high side last year which pushed the average slightly higher, the point is still valid. Storage levels are negatively deviating from the normal trend this time of year, and the weather is still not getting warmer in the near term in populous northern areas, and it is still like winter in the central US.

    • Perhaps I'm looking at this in "wrong" fashion,but I see the higher NG reserve number as an indicator that more than expected switching to coal has occurred...We'll see soon enough,but for now,I'm staying with coal...MS upgrade,IMO,should carry some weight as we move forward into the summer cooling/hurricane season...Best regards,HOG

 
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