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Interesting observation and excellent post! Did you also notice that FICA_Dude and Count_Vladimer also made their debuts on Nov. 8. If you count all of the posts from this guy using at least three IDs, you'll see that he's spending most of his time talking to himself. It's amazing how many of these Yahoo posters think their words have an effect on a stock's price.
However, I do agree with him that Avid is selling at a pretty rich price. I got out this week after doubling my original bet. Maybe I'll miss a little more upside, but getting greedy can get you in trouble, I've found.
I think Count_sugarr_Dude eventually will get back to even on his short if he can afford to stick it out for a while. Avid does have a history of big price swings. Too bad he bet on the wrong direction when it jumped recently to $16. He should've waited another month before placing his bet.
The 20% uptick in my account that YOU don't have is enough for me to feel good.
Edit makes a great point. You think this is about everything except products, you are dead wrong. If Avid continues to sell LARGE installations of shared storage systems as well as complete Broadcast systems they will be very profitable and around for a long time (definetly longer then your attention span)
2200 (or so) Broadcaster worldwide need to be brought in to the digital age (by mandate)
Avg cost to update = $2-8Million
Revenue potetial over the next 5-10 years (@ $4Million avg) = $8.8 BILLION
If Avid can get 50% of that market they have a $4B opportunity
Who is the hands down number one provider of digital video gear you ask?....that would be Avid
You may want to try this exercise on the CONTENT creation side of the HD mandate...its dwarfs the digital newsroom I just spelled out for you
Dumb bet? we will see.
Sugarr_daddy since you seem to have ALL the answers for Avid, what would you do to make the company more profitable if you were CEO?
Now I know you have plenty of expertise in the Broadcast, Movie, and TV industry don't you?
Maybe one of your other aliases can help you with this (all 5 of them and still counting).
I'm glad you came to this board though, it was a bit boring before you and your "friends" showed up. LOL
I'm sugarr, sugar.
This is gonna be like taking candy from babies.
Thanks for the heads up guys. And in the true sugarr tradition:
Give me an A
give me a V
give me an I
give me a D
and what does it spell? AVID AVID AVID
Are you surprised that professional shorts keyed into Avid once it "popped" onto their radar with after a high percentage gain?
Do you really believe after reading the posts from this crowd that they are fickle goofs buying & shorting blindly based on graphs?
Do you really believe that a pro would immediately short a target during the uptrend and before the goofy momentum guys ran out of gas?
Are you sure professional investors don't work together and when banded together are all the same people?
Even if you were correct, what good would this do a trader unless he was spooning "propaganda" instead of numbers (like the longs here do)? Numbers speak for themselves and you must have noticed that the quality of the negative posts is off the scale; while the longs are ......?
Did you know there are "paid" short sites on the web targeting companies like Avid?
Did you know ........
Kindly add me to your list of sugarr_daddy imposters as I too am negative on Avid, intend to short (not short yet, believe it or not), and in general believe the longs here are nitwits.
but, you can call me guenther
Sorry I didn't give you mention earlier, but you weren't using your guenther ID. Do you really think the people on this board are morons who can't see for themselves that guenther, count, sugarr, FICA, jonathan and smiley all surfaced within hours on Nov. 8?
I said earlier that you were more intelligent and mature than most posters. I'll stand by the intelligent part, but your continuing to jump from ID to ID to drive home your point (which everyone got the first time) shows a certain immaturity. Are you going to threaten to hold your breath next week if Avid continues its climb?
All that said, your being negative on Avid has nothing to do with the issue. I also agree that some longs are nitwits just as some shorts are nitwits. I'd say you and anyone else who shorted Avid on or near Nov. 8 is pretty gutsy calling all of the longs on this board nitwits. I got out between $19.25 and $19.49 the other day. Avid may go to $22 or $23 for all I know, but I'm confident I will be able to get back in some day in the low teens or below.
As someone else pointed out earlier, being long doesn't mean holding forever. If you understand that stocks go up and down, and you don't get greedy, you can make money in Avid as either a short or long. I've made money on Avid in the 30s. I've made money on Avid in the 20s. I made money on Avid this week; you increased your losses. If I had held, eventually I would have lost my profit. And believe me, that's happened to me more than once before. I don't think either of us is a nitwit. I just think my timing with Avid in the past month was better than yours. And the biggest factor for me admittedly was luck. There are too many other variables besides straight math involved in the market, and your position is a perfect example of that.
Thanks Backup and yes I did notice that fica and Genius are one in the same.
I also agree that Avid is not at bargain prices here but based on their recent performance, market opportunities and past trends I am willing to bet that if we get some really good numbers for Q4 it has some room to move into the low-mid 20's.
The basic problem with the genius's argument is that he/she assumes we are all going to buy and hold forever...well, technology changes and business climate changes dictate when to get in and out not just the math. "Long" does not mean "blind" just confident given the facts today and the past trends. I am out at 15 with a profit if things go south and I am in until the mid-20's if they deliver then I will re-evaluate.
One thing the "genius" say is true...Avid is not a T-bill, but you will be hard pressed to make 20% in a month with a T-bill (read: aint gonna happen). The risk/reward factor is why we are here and not sitting in t-bills. Congratulations to you and all the other folks here who saw an opportunity and took a risk, that is what this Country is all about!