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Avid Technology, Inc. Message Board

  • semper_spqr semper_spqr Apr 18, 2003 10:31 AM Flag

    Worse Q than last one.

    Without spilling the beans, allow me to make some very general observations to stimulate the mind and debate:

    To the educated eye, this quarter appears worse than the last one.

    Gary Linoff doesn't seem to see the obvious.

    $10m in "earned" operating cash flow, Gary? Is that what you see?

    Pathetic.

    20% shareholder dilution in just 2 quarters.

    A joke.

    CFO gets amnesia once more when asked about last Q.

    NO taxes?

    Huge foreign currency gains?

    $4 million per quarter expected to come in from stock options for the rest of the year?

    Sugarr, your Grandma's CDs are beating Avid's real return hands down, for now and the foreseeable future - IMO.

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    • Semper,

      I knew it wouldn't be long until you posted your ridiculous analysis.

      Can you get a refund on the education your eye got? You got ripped off!

      "$10m in 'earned' operating cash flow, Gary? Is that what you see?" - Yes it's true and doesn't include any ESOP or ESPP cash. Isn't it great!

      "20% shareholder dilution in just 2 quarters." - Where do you get that number from? Options exercise have been less than 1%. ESPP is not dilution. Employees pay for the stock, just like all of the new funds getting into AVID.

      "CFO gets amnesia once more when asked about last Q." - The question was on Q4'02. Kinda hard to remember insignificant details when you have to worry about huge sales increases. Doesn't mean a thing.

      "NO taxes?" - Yes, they've had losses in previous years. Aren't you the one who pointed that out? Can't have it both ways. Read the Tax Code. You'll learn abot NOL carried forward next year when you get to push this years AVID losses into '04 income.

      "Huge foreign currency gains?" - You really show your ignorance on this one. Euro is up 20% this year. Means every sale in Europe has the equivalent of a 20% markup. My company is also doing great in Europe right now.

      "$4 million per quarter expected to come in from stock options for the rest of the year?" - That's the beauty of buying treasury stock when it is cheap and selling to employees when it is more expensive. It is real cash that has been paid for already. Pure profit going forward. The higher the stock price, the more money AVID realizes!

      Perhaps you need to use Visine to wash that seasoning salt out of your eye so you can see a bit clearer. That way your eye will be less seasoned...

    • disagree. dilution is over for the rest of the year.

      take out the currency gains and you still have .20/share earnings.

    • Without spilling the beans, might I suggest you actually listen to the CC, as several of the points you raised were answered on the call.
      No position here, because I think the valuation is rich (I'd like to buy in closer to 20), but you should look further; one broker raised their price target from $30 to $48 after the call: That's a lot to lose on your short position.

 
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