I agree that the stock is stuck here in this range. I disagree that the wolfmiester has been "more right" over the last month though and that is exactly my point. Wolfie came in AFTER the bad q on 7/14/05. The price had dropped to $40.55 on that day. He likes you to THINK he was a genius and had actual data to support his "POS" claims...but he is just a sheep who will always be too late. We open today at $39.72 so at best Wolfie can take credit for predicting a drop of .83 or 2%. Not a real "Wizard of Wall Street" in my book.
what will happen longer term is all about Q3. If the numbers are back and the PCLE integration is on track, this turns out to be a blip and the stock will move higher. If not, then it will move down. I am only asking the Wolfster to provide some data around why he thinks Q3 will suck. If he can't do that then he is just a loudmouth idiot who missed out on the lucrative fall from $68.
not that I feel compelled to answer to a bowles for brains bum like you-but given that I am feeling charitable this is a pos based on chart action, dumb acquisition, and most importantly b/c I told you it was, ok little man!
Well, you "Strong buy" guys seem to get sucked into the Wolfy vortex, and argue with the idiot. He just tries to piss you off, as if groundless ramblings somehow move this market. I've tried to give some business resons as to why this stock is headed back down... perhaps into the 20's or worse if they mess up on already lower expecttions for Q3. I think they're doing the right thing by guiding lower for Q3, since they failed to warn for Q2. They're hoping to knock the lowered number out of the park, and redeem themselves on Wall St. Management thinking at Avid has always been, and will continue to be extremely short sighted... managing quarter to quarter. If they mess up Q3's lowered expectations, they'll announce all sorts of layoffs, then 3 months later, quietly add directors and VPs in the corporate office while the field staff is decimated. Talk to some AE's that were laid off after years of service if you don't believe me. Talk to more than your favorite Avid reseller if you're in the business. You might get candid answer from them, but most are very afraid of Avid repercussions if they're perceived as taking anything but a 100% pro-Avid position. (They quietly are diversifying as to not have to rely on Avid for their nut.) This stock will ratchet down, testing support as I've said in the past. If there's anyone on this board that's made the call right, it's been me. (And no, I was never fired by Avid, do not have a current position, and have made money both long and short on Avid.)
You may well be 100% spot on. You are giving your take on the business and I completely respect that and understand how you come to that conclusion. Wolf is just yelling "fire" in the theater the day after the place burned down. Here is why I dis-agree with your assessment, although it is well articulated and based on data.
1. I think the Pinnacle deal has taken some focus off the real growth component of Avids business - Broadcast Conversion. While the deal closed in August the reality is that they must have been spending lots of time and resources over the previous quarter(s). The acquisition of a public company is a huge undertaking and Avid has never done it before.
2. I actually have the exact opposite view on Avid Mgmt being "short sighted". I agree 100% that it has been the case in the past but just the fact that they are willing to take on PCLE to open up the consumer channel for their products for many years to come tells me they are thinking ahead. Particularly when they must know that the company will suffer in the short term because of all of the difficulties that come with acquiring a company and folding it into an existing business.
3. We can expect existing PCLE sales to slow because most people will wait to see how the whole thing shakes out before they will continue to support a company that has just been acquired. Again, this seems to ME to be long term thinking vs.. short term.
4. I don't doubt for a minute that you were "never fired" or disgruntled in any way. We have different views of this company that are actually both based on a combination of fact and logical prediction. I can not say that for the wolfster though..
The strong buy is because I do think, in the longer term Avid will be a stronger company for this aquisition. Because I am of the belief that this is what is causing this bump in the Avid road that obviously explains why I think it is a strong buy. It is NOT because I blindly think it will go back to $68 just because it was there once.