11/08/05 MILBURY PAUL J Sold 2,900 $51.49 149,306.50
11/07/05 GUTTAG JOHN V Sold 10,000 $51.21 512,100.00
11/07/05 LENEHAN PAMELA F Sold 10,000 $51.43 514,300.00
11/02/05 BAKER PATRICIA A Sold 15,552 $52.23 812,280.94
11/02/05 BENTIVEGNA JOSEPH Sold 13,437 $52.24 701,948.88
11/02/05 JACKS ETHAN E Sold 6,659 $51.00 339,609.00
11/02/05 SMITH CHARLES L Sold 17,468 $51.11 892,789.50
11/01/05 HASTINGS JEFFREY S Sold 14,000 $49.39 691,460.00
11/01/05 KRALL DAVID A Sold 50,000 $49.38 2.47 Mil
11/01/05 LEBOLT DAVID Sold 39,437 $49.36 1.95 Mil
11/01/05 MILBURY PAUL J Sold 21,879 $50.26 1.10 Mil
11/01/05 ROCKWELL MICHAEL J Sold 26,351 $50.09 1.32 Mil
I'm not choosing sides either way, but you must have some clue as to the way insiders can and do sell stock. There is a relatively narrow window on either side of the reporting periods that open for insider sales. In most companies it is less than 30 days, and if ther is any material event, it can narrow that window even further. Option exercises (buy at $11 3/8 and sell at $50+) also happen at specific times so they can also be focused on a particularly small window.
Insiders selling (or buying) at roughly the same time is such a small indicator as to be useless. Insider buying and selling across an industry over a few q's has some value, but even then it's pretty much worthless.
Additionally, having been there myself, some companies, or individuals sell holdings on a regular basis to reduce concentration, or to offset option grants that are coming up in the near-term. Lots of this stuff happens at or near year-end.
I have no opinion either way on the stock, but I wouldn't base any decisions on short-term insider decisions.
"What does this say about their confidence with regard to future revenue projections? All senior executives liquidating positions within 7 days of one another? Hmmmmm....very interesting."
It is interesting.....Maybe Apple is considering buying Avid and the boy's want to lighten up in case it happens. There could be many reasons, and they aren't all bad. The chart alone keeps me in, look at that double bottom! Gotta love it!
"WOW!!! What a wonderful human being. Has no position in the stock but is so concerned about his fellow investors that he takes time out to post a warning. "
Thanks for the sarcastic compliment. I think YOU should load up here!
FYI, here are prior posts to validate my prior warning:
10702, 10990, & 11034. Unfortunately prior encouragemnt and warnings are no longer stored here.
I don't short stocks. I do not want to wish ill on a corporation or its investors in order to make a $.
When I make a bad buy and in the position of losing real money as I was here, I try to figure how high a bounce it will make, and buy the appropriate # calls to break even and make a graceful exit, as I did here.
Good luck to you and all your fellow cynics.
I predict AVID will go 15% 2006, but it should be a real rollercoaster ride, have a blast, truly. Peace.
No offense (and I'm not biased either way) but not looking at the short side is like always betting on red at roulette. Stocks go up and down based on a slew of factors, and the objective is to make money. So if you come across something that is negative, you bet black instead of red.
Its not un-american, and usually does not hurt the company (unless of course you turn out to be right, and then its usually their fault anyway), unless you are an institutional investor with large size positions.
It's easy to be optimistic all the time, but there are lots of poorly managed companies, and lots of bad products. It takes a bit of extra time to do the research (since Wall Street will always help you buy things), but some of my best long-term investments have been in companies that had fundamental business plan flaws and went away. My bias has always been long, but a portfolio that is beta ajusted with both longs and shorts takes a lot of the 'market' out of the portfolio, and lets the fundamentals do the talking. JMHO.
The same fundamentals that you should look at with any company...Things like new product development; sell-through; new customer wins; market drivers; saturation; all financial ratios, etc.
Emotional investing is usually a disaster. The idea is to look for companies that have some kind of driver that will keep them growing for an extended period of time, and then monitor that growth. The more you know about your investments, the better able you are to react unemotionally to new developments. The simple question of "Do I sell or do I buy more?" is easy to answer if you know how the new development fits into your (and the company's) growth outlook.
It's not a perfect science, but it works.