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Avid Technology, Inc. Message Board

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    • You're correct in that they do have the product "hooks" in place....but not the proper management. Krall and Company (the future name of a consulting company?) have had ample time to change the strategy and haven't. What they have done is continue to milk their high-end installed base while they try to decide what to do on the low-end. They have done nothing to change their distribution model (at least in the US) and have lost significant mindshare in the areas of R&D and product engineering. They lost roughly 2 years worth of time with Trilligent and Avid Pro Net. What should they do next? That's why I continue to read these posts, hoping to find some logical direction. Does Autodesk have any cash left?

    • >... there is a nearly untouched high-volume market that they're only now starting to get into.

      If it were another company, starting from zero or from the low-end, I would agree. However, I have never seen any company at the high-end transition to low-end without almost starting again. Sales staff who are used to big expense accounts, building relations with a few customers, making just a hand full of sales to hit or exceed target - do not transition easily to selling 100 or 1000 units to mail order or distribution companies. The cultures and the methods of business are alien. Look at Media 100 - they were by no means high-end like Avid are, yet they had to make significant changes to handle MediaCleaner, Cleaner Live, etc and now they've sold it all off to ADSK.

      By all means beat my over the head with this message in a years time when I'm proven wrong. I don't believe Avid will survive looking anything like they are now by selling a volume of sub-$10K products, and I certainly don't think they can manage that at the same time as retaining the high-end model.

      Having written it this feels like an Avid-bashing message. It wasn't meant to be - I'm just saying that developing and selling sub-$10K products is not the way forward. What is? That's the question I'm not able to answer, but then I don't get paid millions to work it out either.

    • > I think we're near saturation on most current Avid products, and I'm told that some of their products have been reduced in price very significantly

      While I would agree that Avid has reached (or nearly reached) saturation in its highest-end markets, there is a nearly untouched high-volume market that they're only now starting to get into. The Digi 001 hit the sweet spot in the consumer market and is doing very well and XPress DV also seems to be doing reasonably well. I personally think a high-end consumer product, somewhere between XPress DV and the old Avid Cinema would do well (high-end consumers like to have the same brand as the professional market). If they can innovate so they'll be able to retain the high end and lower their overall price points, they'll be able to keep current customers and concurrently move into a higher volume market.

      While many appear to be pretty down on Avid, it seems to me that they have all the hooks in place to be a huge player for the future. For example: Take Pro Tools LE and add ASIO, Wave and DirectX drivers so that it can be sold as a stand-alone product. Pro Tools is the leader in the pro market and consumers will flock to it. The same could be done by making an XPress DV|LE or even a SoftImage XSI|LE. All of these could be created with little or no development investment. As many have said, the Avid sales model would have to be changed to accomodate these new products, but I'd be willing to bet there are some at Avid that would rather sell to this type of market.

      Avid has a lot of "restructuring" (not in the way of getting rid of people, but changing the organization) left before it'll be able to turn this corner, but it has all of what it needs to succeed. With some companies, success is more a matter of luck than anything. Avid has the best technology, the prestigous Hollywood market, cash to innovate and products already showing they're capable of turning the corner. If Avid can't succeed, then it is their own stubbornness and unwillingness to change with the times that has caused their demise.

    • What do you think of Sun Micro at this price? I think it has greater potential to triple than Avid does. I sold half of my Avid stock after they posted an awesome Q4 and the price went down. Wish I had dumped it all.....

    • My god! Is it time to get back into this thing? 7 and change seems like a no-brainer. Or do you just load up on Cisco GE and Pillip Morris? Maybe it's just me, but these prices seem too damn low to pass up?

      I still think Avid is worth three times this price.

    • I just heard that a major west coast dealer was able to purchase a ton of upgrades that usually sell for $30K, for something like $10K to offer to their customers. Wonder if the backlash will resemble the ABVB disaster? They just never learn.......

    • "and I'm told that some of their products have been reduced in price very significantly"

      Actually I think it's more sensible on this occasion, I didn't want to be specific because I've heard it second hand, but what the heck. I heard that MC 9000 is available for the price of MC1000 and the expectation is that the 1000 will be dropped. And although the sales reps were dropping their pants a few months ago, I think they're doing less deals now. Their regular customers really don't appreciate it when Avid let new competitors in at even lower prices - charge rates are low enough already.

    • "and I'm told that some of their products have been reduced in price very significantly"

      Here they go significant? Have they announced any official price drops? You can always get a different price if you call them directly. Their pricing has always been contingent upon where they stand at the end of a quarter.

    • > I think they're going to hold on a buyback until 2002 so that the 2001 report will look all pretty with the amount of cash on hand. By year end the stock price will be pretty low and they'll get to buy it back cheap. The stock will be up again.

      I've lost confidence over the last couple of months, and put my money where my mouth is too - I sold out yesterday.

      I didn't make it to IBC in Europe this year, but the feedback I got didn't sound too bright. The usual big professional booth, but very few customers and even less new customers. I think we're near saturation on most current Avid products, and I'm told that some of their products have been reduced in price very significantly. A friend of mine who's a reseller in Europe (better not say more specifically than that) said they actually showed revenue figures in their presentation. And guess what - they showed a massive drop in Europe, but almost steady here and Pacific Rim. That's basically what Avid hinted at in recent statements, but surprising they used it to motivate their channel.

      In Europe FAST are an increasingly significant NLE player, and they have just been acquired by Pinnacle. That basically moves FAST low-end so good for Avid. Discreet (ADSK) just bought the streaming products from Media 100 (not the whole company as some Avid employees are saying;-) and that will be interesting. When M100 had Cleaner 5 bundled in Avid systems and therefore knowing who the users are it didn't really matter, but Discreet - that's bad news.

      Anyway, I suspect that Avid have some readjusting to do, and I doubt they'll be on an upward trend by the end of this year. I think they'll go through more pain and not grow again until this time next year. Just my vaguely informed opinion though.

    • Hey Brooksie, way to go! "Paying customer" is the one that sounds (and writes) alot like an insider that I once knew.....You seem to know more than the average customer and I appreciate your insight. Where do you see this company going? And remember, be nice, you don't want to offend anyone.

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