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Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. Message Board

  • o08o.ugh64w o08o.ugh64w May 23, 2013 8:21 AM Flag

    At the end of the day

    they still lost $24 million in the quarter.

    I am not a fan of non-GAAP numbers at all. As opposed to the standard boilerplate of "we believe it gives a better indication of the business", my own definition is more along the lines of "how much of the bad stuff can we hide"?

    Forward guidance - again, I'm not impressed. What is the strongest quarter/season may not even show profitability this year...and again that's non-GAAP - connotation meaning there are still charges/losses coming.

    I think any rally in the shares will (or more appropriately should) be short-lived as people begin to pick apart the numbers and the language for what it really is. Should there be upgrades, it would indicate to me a desire for the analysts to keep the hype of this market going. I think any hype here is being misplaced as I don't think there's any company strength showing - we need a reset and people to begin looking at GAAP results.

    Sorry, even as a shareholder through this period of rebuilding I'm not impressed. Lower the estimates low enough and set expectations appropriately and any company can beat them regardless of how it actually performed. It's no more than a game at this point.

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    • At the end of the day, a lot of people want to ignore the meaningless of the derivative liability GAAP "loss." If this was so meaningful, where were you guys pointing out the GAAP "profit" for the 3rd quarter of last year? It's very simple. The company issued warrants giving an affiliate of Golden Gate the right to buy shares at $1.75. When the stock rises above $1.75, they have a paper loss. When it falls below $1.75, they have a gain. This has all been disclosed, so people do your own due diligence to confirm whether what I said is accurate, but my money is on every analyst and institutional investor knows how it works.

      • 1 Reply to gwconcord
      • I am simply getting tired of all the number games being played here.

        "Revenue from $209 million to $219 million;"

        "The Company's guidance range for the second quarter of fiscal 2013 contemplates a non-GAAP (loss) income per diluted share from continuing operations of between $(0.05) and $0.02, compared to $(0.09) in the second quarter of fiscal 2012."

        Followed by:
        "An estimated $10 million shift in revenue from the third quarter to the second quarter and a corresponding shift of $0.05 per diluted share as a result of the 53rd week calendar shift."

        And the AP Press Release:
        "It anticipates revenue between $209 million and $219 million for the second quarter; analysts had forecast $198.6 million."

        So they are going to make that $209 million to $219 million after shifting in $10 million - so the low end is exactly what analysts had forecast. Guidance is nothing astounding. Did the analysts forecast include the extra $10 million for the 53rd week? Most likely not.

        And for an extra week being shifted in, the effect is 5 cents/share profit? That is huge if true. Comparing with the same quarter last year as they did in the statement, at first they make it sound they are doing so much better - but take out the additional 5 cents/share for the extra week and it's basically flat.

        Fun with numbers.

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