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Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. Message Board

  • BenGrahamMan BenGrahamMan Nov 19, 2003 5:48 PM Flag

    Fleck on housing ot

    www.fleckensteincapital.com

    >> Dear Bill,

    I have read a number of commentaries stating that the money supply is now decreasing.

    Are the printing presses being slowed, or is this something technical? Is there an important difference between Fed and corporate paper in terms of shaping the money supply?

    I know what the big trends are, but how does this fit?
    � I think it's the collapse of the reif's of homes that is the driving force behind that, but it's just my hunch.
    <<

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    • Ben,
      I do not have time to address all the issues you bring up. Just as I do not have time to address all the issues that shorts bring up on other stocks I own. I love economics and would love to get into it with you sometime but for now its a response here and there Between a 12 hour a day job, MBA class, 2 kids, etc., I don't have the time.

      I comment on a board a time or two because I don't want novice investors tainted by shorts or longs who excessively post as one sided views.

      Nothing is ever as bad as short holders claim it is, nothing is as ever as rosy as the longs say.

      BUT. I believe that the housing numbers for September and October will bode well for BBBY.
      Here is an excerpt from the housing:

      Housing starts rose by a larger-than-expected 2.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.96 million units, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. This follows a revised increase of 4.0% in September to a 1.905 million rate. September starts were previously reported as rising 3.4% to an annual rate of 1.888 million units.

      The report was much stronger than analysts had expected. A Dow Jones Newswires-CNBC poll of 20 economists had predicted housing starts would fall 2% to a 1.85 million annual rate.

      The housing sector of the U.S. economy has remained strong for the past several years and has defied analysts' expectations as it weathered the 2001 economic recession. Near record-low mortgage rates continue to underpin the housing market.

      The October report showed that building permits, an indicator of future building activity, surged in October by 5.2% to a 1.973 million annual rate.

      Single-family starts rose 5.7%, setting a new record at a 1.617 million annual rate. Multifamily starts, or starts on apartment buildings, dropped

      • 1 Reply to thinking_man_too
      • thinking man 2,

        thanks for the input. I dont disagree about sept and oct. things are still busy with real estate and construction in my neck of the woods. Keep in mind that fleck and russell have their opinions and that is what i posted. I think both agree as well that right now housing is strong. I think they believe that will change, as do i, sooner than later. Keep in mind that I have felt that housing was overpriced since 2001, so i sure have been wrong so far.

        bgm

 
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