Do you think BBBY will go down to levels that they were at in late December (in the teens) If so what do you think they'll go to and when?
Thanks, your advise is much appreciated!
Silver I think the math is a little beyond most folks here, but don't worry I get it. I am a big roller so I think I will short 50K shares instead of 5K so I can make 96 million outright. I hope that doesn't affect BBBY's float and market cap.
I bought some corn at the grocery the other day and hope to retire from my time value claim on its future earnings.
Once California starts issuing IOU's which will result in BK for BBBY. No one has been buying much lately, and everyone is scared of the uncertain future. Unemployment in Ca is the highest in the U.S. and every month more companies are subsequently laying off more employees--resulting in low discretionary consumer consumption.
While we are on this subject, do your own homework, i.e go to your local Lowe's, William Sonoma, pottery barn, BBBY. The store traffic especially at BBBY is almost down 70% below a year ago. I spoke with one of the store employees and she said, "it's not looking good," and has heard that bad news is coming, so be prepared. She mentioned about the store closing, the lay offs and how they're cutting hours further more than they already have. All this has lead me to believe that BBBY will be a victim of this recession and will be forced to file BK along with WSM and LOW. So, Sell, Sell and sell!
If you want my best advice; sell short and imagine how 5K can bring you 9 million or more in 18 months or less. Stock is going nowhere but downhill and I think it is worth taking the risk. If you make millions immediately, buy leap corn call options which may make hundreds of millions for you. Food commodity in next two years will sky rocket due to hyperinflation and dollar devaluation. Good Luck. By the way, I'm doing the same thing.
How can 5K bring you 9 million in 18 months just by selling short? I'm not trying to be a dork. I just would like to know a strategy that could make that happen because I'm all ears. Puts aren't cheap anymore and you know the old rule about how much you can make shorting on a single trade. Companies would have to go to 0 multiple times over for this to happen. I just don't get it.
Here is a great summary from CalculatedRisk:
Of particular interest are the December retail sales numbers:
The shocking thing about this chart is just how fast and far down retail sales are dropping. Until we start to see this graph at least pointed towards positive territory the future for BBBY is uncertain.
The other thing to consider is that BBBY sells discretionary items (entirely)... and, I suspect, much of their sales comes from folks that have just moved. The issue these days (as the above summary supports) is that basically everybody in America is losing on their house and so after moving will likely not have extra money in their pocket. Not to mention that HELOC's are now virtually non-existent.
I do not think eps of < $1 for 2010 is unreasonable. If the rest of the market has another couple of big 'correction' days as many, many are now calling for, then BBBY could easily see a PE of < 10. This gives you a single digit share price.
I would put the chances of the share price going under $10 in 2009 as maybe 10%. Under $15 as 60% and under $18 as 99%.
Absolutely. You just need to have patience. The multiple is still too high and earnings are going to be contracting. I'm taking off 1/2 of what I have left at 20. And the other half at 18. That's what I've decided to do, just because I wanna lock in gains at some point and move on. Long, long-term, who knows? It could go bankrupt. The bottom line is the consumer is on life-support right now. Who would've ever thought that in one year, CC, Steve and Barry's, Linens & Things and Sharper Image would all go BK?