DCTH , which I warned investors about, currently has a market cap of 45 million and an FDA Panel just voted 16 to 0 against their device. It's archaic, obsolete, and frankly lethal. NWBO has 2 phase III trials, has about 17 million in cash (10 million from last raise, assume 1.5 million from Dec. raise and 5.5 from German government) and it has a market cap of 95 million. They should have another trial which is exciting (whether it works I don't know) which should start this summer. As the enrollment criteria is broad and for those who have no other choice, enrollment should be rapid. Moreover, as the endpoint is tumor regression, results are months away. You would think that given this the stock would be trading closer to a market cap of 200 million or 6-7 dollars a share. The question then is why doesn't it? It is either a perception problem or a science problem. If the former, its the trade of a lifetime. If the latter than ok these trials are for nothing, the German government was duped and Fraunhofer doesn't have better things to do. It's possible. But what is the downside? Yes, in the long run its 0 but you will have plenty of time to exit as there are lots of things going on i.e., interim results of the phase III for GBM not expected until later in the year (look at Smith's article -- I don't' understand how one can have interim results prior to completion of enrollment but....) and the upside is unlimited... so place your bets. I like the risk/reward here as I see .15 cents downside and 50 points upside. I guess this is in accord with Smith's asymmetric trade thesis.
Interim phase 3 results due perhaps to the wide variations in the start times of the patients. Agree completely with this new trial being an extra chance to increase the pps with limited downside as phase 3 is due shortly thereafter. You hit on the vary reason why I personally increased my holdings.
You are overestimating the importance of the interim review. The interim look is a safety review to make sure the subjects who are getting the experimental drug are not having complications due to it. Most of the time there will be no changes recommended unless there is a significant benefit or harm from the experimental drug. There is a remote possibility since the trial was started a long time ago that the subjects who received the vaccine are doing well and that there is a statistically significant survival benefit at the time of the interim review; in that case the trial would be stopped so the placebo patients could also get the vaccine ( and we would be made). Changes of that happening are remote.