1)Someone could remind me... if direct works, with a 50b market, what would the stock price be... what's the equation again...
2)what's the risk that nwbo gets eventually bought out by a big pharma, if
Powers holds a majority of the shares... thanks
Anni, do you have an URL for how they calculate this value or just their bald assertion about the value. the latter is meaningless while the former is worth a look to see if it makes sense but certainly still far from definitive.
Anni, unfortunately the markwt determines current value. An analyst can say its worth whatever they want, but unless someone is willing to purchase it at that price, its just an analysis. Dont get me wrong, I believe we are currently undervalued and the markets will catch up, but our current value is 3.51.
youppi, Before a small biotech has approval, the valuation models don't make sense. If we see a PR in Q4 that 70% of the DCVax-Direct patients had significant tumor shrinkage, no one will be doing a discounted cash flow analysis to come up with a fair value. They'll just hit the "buy" button and worry about the price later.
So sure, maybe the stock will be $100 or $200 in a few years if everything falls into place. But if you have a $50,000 profit overnight because NWBO jumps to $10-$15 on a big PR, at least consider selling some on the "bird in the hand" idea. I intend to sell some, keep some, on a big run up.
The equation is whatever you believe the market cap would be, in this case 50B divided by how many shares the company has or will have, I would use 40M. Although I think 50B at this point is a bit of a stretch. If direct works maybe not too far in the future though.
The only risk of being bought out is if Powers et all decide to sell, and I think after all of this she will want a larger payout then us. IMO unless there was an offer of 10B plus she will see it through........I also personally think that NWBO is and will be the leader in the immunotherapy space.