IMUC data foretells success for NWBO's DCVax-Brain.
the primary response for ICT-107 was OS and it failed to meet statistical significance. However, I think this data will be improved over time because the OS outcome presented today contains only 50% of the population However, the PFS data contains 100% of the population and this meets statistical significance. The primary response for DCVax-Brain is the PFS, and it is a good news for NWBO that ICT-107 met its secondary response, PFS.
I am long to both IMUC and NWBO. Here is a post I put up on the IMUC board that is very relevant to both companies:
"The AH dumping is a knee-jerk overreaction to a few key phrases---BUT the data.....
.while technically not meeting the preselected 'primary endpoint' of OS which was an extremely optimistic goal, is very impressive for one of the most aggressive, debilitating, and largely untreatable forms of malignant cancer today. And the PFS data showing 3 months difference between placebo/control and ICT-107 is VERY significant. And at this point, while there have been 67 events(death) with those patients, there were 124 patients in the study--so the early data really can only compare results of the treated patients who failed to respond to the treatment--and there are ALWAYS going to be poor or non-responders to any treatment. Remember---even EVERY successful cancer therapy has failures---it happens. But--with overall survival even in this group of likely poorer responders being greater by 2 months and PFS better by 3 months---there is a very high likelihood that the remaining patients in the study who have not evented yet or have the longest OS and PFS are being treated with ICT-107 and the statistical analysis of the entire study population will reflect this and the final data will be much more impressive. The company may also be able to determine what caused certain patients to respond poorly to ICT-107 and others to respond much better---or even be cured--again upon further analysis. All of these factors will come into play when the phase 3 trial is designed---and the company and the future prospects of ICT-107 are still very much alive."
NWBO has a considerable leg up and head start on IMUC being in P3 following encouraging data in previous trials, and their results will be markedly better.