Shorts are up 49.2% in June. Volume up from April but down from mid-May. This seems to suggest that price pressure was result of increased short selling, some of which was absorbed by insider buying. Given the relatively tight band of price distribution over the month, it seems like we could get quick acceleration in price when shorts start to cover.
Date || Short Int || Avg Vol || Days to Cover 5/31/2012 || 1,095,369 || 312,269 || 3.50 5/15/2012 || 1,049,471 || 598,198 || 1.75 4/30/2012 || 733,887 || 268,196 || 2.73
Shares short increased again at June 30 - up almost 300,000 from May 31st and up 113,000 from June 15. Volume remains low. Days-to-cover increased to 5 days. When we get better than expected earnings data tomorrow, this stock should react quickly to the upside.
Management bought stock then reaffirmed guidance. To me, this signals that earnings will exceed expectations. Stay tuned. I think we will hit $20 by end of the week.
A thinly traded stock. It will be hard to cover when it does move. Hard to understand why anyone would short this at all, when there would have to be easier money in other stocks that will get punished by Greek/Spanish defaults.
For fundamentalists, I think they report 2nd qtr results July 22nd. Already they have re-affirmed that quarters' guidance, which is very good. A strong 4-cluster of insider buying in May (with the CFO also buying in, a rare event), and an upgrade by FBR Capital on May 30th. Their target, $20.
If your a chartist, the Bollinger Bands (http://www.bollingerbands.com/) are indeed getting relatively tight, looking at the typical (20,2) bands. Also it looks suspiciously like a small "Cup and Handle" between May 15th and May 31st, with a messy handle the first week of June. The anemic handle was probably due to the excessive Greek/Spanish fear in the markets. Assuming this has any validity, the cups height is about 16.24 - 14.58 = 1.66, plus the the height at cup completion (16.24 + 1.66) = $17.90, in about as much time as it took to make the cup, which would place the target of $17.90 right near the end of June.
If you're into old sayings, then the famous “Sell in May and go away, come back St. Leger day” – refers to the last horse racing classic of the flat racing season in the UK, which is normally the 2nd Saturday of Sept, but this year, seems to be on the 15th. I think we might close the gap at $22 by Sept 15th.