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The Blackstone Group L.P. Message Board

  • carolyn_novice carolyn_novice Dec 14, 2013 5:54 PM Flag

    Barron’s on HLT major holder BX at 29.04

    There are two articles in Barron’s
    1. The trader
    2. The Fed's Hilton Getaway: Hospitality Sweet
    At current prices, Hilton trades for more than 14 times enterprise value to Ebitda, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, versus a multiple of 12 to 13 times for rivals like Hyatt Hotels (H) and Starwood. (Price-to-earnings multiples are a "terrible" way to value the industry, says Mollman, because of hotels' high depreciation charges.) Hilton's growth rate actually lags those two rivals, says Mollman, who thinks the shares are worth $16.
    Coming off six years under private-equity ownership, Hilton is also considerably more debt-laden than competitors. The company held $14.3 billion in long-term debt at the end of the third quarter. Its net debt to Ebitda is 6.4 times, versus two times for its competitors, says MKM Partners analyst Christopher Agnew. While the company can easily cover its debt payments, they will eat away at its free cash for the foreseeable future, even as rivals like Starwood are paying dividends and investing in stock buybacks.
    And that's not the only overhang. About 80% of the shares are in the hands of insiders who have signed a 180-day lock-up agreement. They could begin selling some of their shares when it expires. "[T]he stock overhang is more of an issue for HLT than many of the other IPOs we have recently analyzed," Agnew writes.

    Carolyn Novice

    I do not own BX or HLT.

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    • Carolyn, if you do not own BX or HLT, why post here? Are you short these stocks?

      • 1 Reply to kowskis2
      • I am a short-term trader and this holiday season, it is time to share my views with others. I hate to see hard earned money lost by some traders selling at the bottom.

        Also if the stock takes a gradual decline, it may clear weak holders. A base building after nice run at lower level, may give me a chance to participate in next rally.

        I was told before HLT IPO by my broker, that if I sell with in15 trading days, I will not be allowed to participate in IPO for next six months.

        I hate to hold stock if I can’t sell for small loss or profit.

        I sold BX last week above $29. There are very few new highs on NYSE, and new lows keep increasing. We could be in for more than a small correction. Everyone expects Santa Clause Rally.

        World markets are declining; cash in hand will give me a better opportunity at a future date.

        If you are long-term investor, then you should ignore traders. But always remember BX had a big run up and can easily have equal severe reaction. My posting has no effect on the price of BX, it has nearly billion shares.

        Something for you to learn, it you decided to become a trader.

        Google Search
        20 Golden Rules For Traders

        20. Beat the crowd in and out the door. You have to take their money before they take yours, period.

        Google Search
        StreetSmartReport…..and read, Where’s The Bottom?

        Good luck and always remember and follow the rule 20.


        Carolyn Novice

27.68+0.26(+0.95%)Jul 25 4:01 PMEDT