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Brookdale Senior Living Inc. Message Board

  • pharmacologist123 pharmacologist123 Jun 9, 2006 10:04 AM Flag

    Shrinking target market?

    Interesting article by Robert Powell on titled: "Separating fact from fiction --- 10 retirement myths and the facts that dispel them".

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    • that's a fair request, but i don't have the time to put the research together right now. i'm leaving for europe tomorrow to go to the world cup. maybe when i get back.

      in regards to fortress, i know them better than you think and at some point they will be sellers, maybe not now, but they will. in the meantime, i'm sure all decision will be made to benefit their bottom line and ultimately the stock price of bkd. as long as the company continues to grow free cash flow form operations, the accretive earnings from their acquisitions will start to creep into the bottom line late this year and early next year.

      the market as a whole may be flat to down at least for a few months which may hold the stock, but 60 by year end is not out of the question so i'm looking at this area as a potential first entry.

    • TBC = Part Two...

      Stage two for Fortress's profitable exit from this position (first was merging the assets and taking them public) is not now but later. You need to study the history of asset-based private equity investment firms. And don't be foolish: they've a resoundingly "controlling interest". They call the shots period. Your interests are not their interests. Indeed, conflicting. It's a zero-sum game.

      Now, for your musing re BUY status: pre-acquistion the few analysts on BKD posited 2007 EPS about fifty cents for a forward P/E of 90X to 100X. Whatever post-acquisition pro-forma EPS are you entertaining for 2007 to justify a BUY musing? And please offer forth, not some gibberish re "cash-EPS" or "EBITDA" or such but simply, for simple investors like myself, the true SEC-sanctioned, GAAP EPS you are working with for BKD in 2007. A sincere query, so thank you.

    • Johnny that makes no sense. BKD is cash and cash-flow poor. The entire acquisition of American is being financed by a 1.2 billion cash infusion from Fortress. Fortress is not infusing-in and selling-out at the same time. Fortress is an asset-based private equity investor that purchased the dismal assets of the bankrupt/reorganized entity called Alterra/Alternative Living/Evergreen in all of its pre-bankruptcy private lives, plus the Brookdale assets. I.e., Fortress purchased both sets of RE (Alterra and Brookdale), merged them, and then took the combined assets public via IPO of BKD. That's when they made their major money. TBC

    • BTW don't feel sorry for me as I netted 142% which should help offset my disastrous short attempt on AMR awhile back.

      I would like to thank TD Waterhouse and Goldman Sachs for this opportunity and for HEP, CLMT, ICE, and several others. Just hope GGL and ZZ can pull out of their funks (so far so good on GGL).

    • Well I just became one of them. Was tired of watching my profits rapidly disappear day by day. Broke two layers of support; or at least where it's at now is right at 2nd support (a website shows 46.72 but looks more around 46). In a stable market I would hold until sure it broke, but it's a long slide from this support and this is one crappy market.

      To the shorts: I suggest waiting to short (or short more) until it approaches the high again now that I sold. LOL - some kind of Murphy's Law thing.

    • Link or date? If I can find it I'll read it. Maybe it's a pay subscriber article?

15.62-0.31(-1.95%)Oct 21 4:02 PMEDT